Shortly after falling from its test of the low $4,000s, bitcoin managed to find support in the mid $3,500s. This has proven to be a relevant level over the last few months, and finding support here would be a sign of relatively strong demand:
Figure 1: BTC-USD, Daily Candles, Local Support
The high candle spread rejection following our test of the low $4,000s was an indication that we had strong levels of supply left in the market, but for the time being we are holding support. Looking into lower time frame charts, we see that we are currently riding on top of both the symmetrical triangle shown above and the prior trading range (TR) sitting just below us:
Figure 2: BTC-USD, 4-Hour Charts, Retest of Trading Range
Often, we see extreme wicks that drop into prior trading ranges as a method to generate liquidity for large capital traders. When the markets have relatively low liquidity, the volatility tends to pick up as the order books tend to be thinner. Yesterday, the wick lined up perfectly with a dip into the reaccumulation TR sitting just below us. The test was on high volume and was immediately capitalized upon by the bulls.
Sometimes, when the market experiences prolonged consolidation patterns (like our symmetrical triangle), it will break out and retest the breakout zone to confirm bullish pressure is present. We are currently experiencing a potential retest of the symmetrical triangle breakout. If the retest holds, this could mean we’re in for a decent leg up in price, as the price target for this symmetrical triangle is a near $1,000 move (a 30% markup):
Figure 3: BTC-USD, Daily Candles, Symmetrical Triangle Retest
To calculate the typical breakout target for a symmetrical triangle, we simply take the height of the base and project it to the point of breakout. In our case, it’s around $1,000 (technically, it’s about $1,100, but I’m being conservative since we are in a bear market).
Keep in mind that this just a setup, and our current failure to establish new highs could mean we need to push lower, test macro support and THEN retest the resistance overhead. However, if this level holds, the implications are fairly bullish.
In the event we continue upward, keep a close eye out for a close above our current $4,200 high. If we manage to close a new high, that will likely spark fresh buying interest since it would ultimately yield a break of our current bearish structure. Conversely, our failure to hold our current level would likely mean a return to the low $3,000s to test macro support.
- Our current rejection of the low $4,000s coincided with a retest of local support and a retest of our symmetrical triangle consolidation.
- If we manage to hold support, we could be looking at a $1,000 move to the upside into the upper $4,000 area.
- If we fail to hold support, we will likely see a retest of the $3,000 range to test the demand along macro support.
Trading and investing in digital assets like bitcoin is highly speculative and comes with many risks. This analysis is for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice. Statements and financial information on Bitcoin Magazine and BTC Inc related sites do not necessarily reflect the opinion of BTC Inc and should not be construed as an endorsement or recommendation to buy, sell or hold. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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