The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility; over its ten-year history, the Bitcoin (BTC) price has been subject to massive moves, moves that change on which order of magnitude the asset is trading at.
However, Bitcoin has entered a lull over recent weeks, entering a defined range between $9,500 and $11,500 and experiencing the motions of consolidation: declining volumes, few price spikes or drops, and a broad sentiment of indirection and indecision.
As reported by NewsBTC, this massive lull has resulted in Bitcoin’s volatility index reading on BitMEX falling to a zone “where massive price moves are born”, as analyst Chonis put it.
$BTC – (volatility index) entering the zone where Massive #bitcoin Price Moves are born… pic.twitter.com/AIbr4zOWdn
— Chonis ⚔️ Flux Trading Group⚔️ (@BigChonis) September 15, 2019
Indeed, per this writer’s analysis of the metric, Bitcoin volatility is at a point not seen since two weeks prior to that one fateful day in April, which saw Bitcoin experience 20% explosion from $4,000 to $5,000. The metric is also as low as it was just days before Bitcoin plunged from the $6,000 cliff to the $3,000 bottom in late-2018.
To put it short and sweet: a gargantuan Bitcoin price move is in the works.
But the question remains — in which direction will BTC decide to head in?
A growing number of analysts say the “number go up”. Here’s why.
Bitcoin Setting Up for Bullish Breakout
Over the past few months, Bitcoin has found itself trading in a clear triangle, seeing higher lows and lower highs. While some have taken this as a bearish sign—consistently lower highs could be seen as a loss of bullish momentum—well-known analyst Jacob Canfield notes that per a study from Bulkwoski, descending triangles in an uptrend break upward 63% of the time.
According to Bulkowski, descending triangles as a continuation pattern in an uptrend break out upwards 63% of the time.
As traders, it is our job to identify ‘edges’ that are greater than 50/50 to remain profitable.
Ideal scenario: Long support or long the retest of a breakout. pic.twitter.com/Cgs7Q0Mhqb
— Jacob Canfield (@JacobCanfield) September 16, 2019
Sentiment seems to be on the side of bulls. According to a recent impromptu poll of 4,000 cryptocurrency traders on Twitter by analyst Josh Rager, a majority — just around 60% — believe that Bitcoin will break above the triangle.
Fundamental factors would seemingly corroborate this.
Bakkt, the New York Stock Exchange-backed crypto outfit, will be commencing the trading of its Bitcoin futures contract near the apex of the above-mentioned triangle; Central banks in the world have committed to injecting more liquidity into the economy, boosting the (currently) risk-on BTC.
Per recent analysis from Dan Tapiero, a prominent hedge fund manager and gold bullion proponent, a strong close above the upper bound of the triangle — currently around $10,700 — will see Bitcoin “really accelerate”.
His peer Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs executive, has said that Bitcoin is looking much like a rocket ship ready to blast off.
Bitcoin chart is very close to upside breakup. Strong close over 10,700 trendline should really accelerate. pic.twitter.com/2BWHjEVxa0
— Dan Tapiero (@DTAPCAP) September 16, 2019
What they are saying is that should Bitcoin break the aforementioned trend line, the consolidation will have ended, setting the stage for a strong price move to in the upward direction.
Indeed, previous triangle breaks of this medium-term importance have set Bitcoin both skyrocketing and plummeting over BTC’s history.
Bearish Fears Still Linger
While the technical indicators and fundamentals seem to be pointing towards an impending Bitcoin price breakout to the upside, there are some fleeting fears that BTC may soon resolve to the downside.
Committing to the short-term bear, long-term bull persona, renowned analyst Dave the Wave recently noted that the $7,000 price level is still in reach for Bitcoin, with BTC’s relative strength index (RSI) reading still being relatively lofty compared to historical “bull market corrections”.
A correction to the 7K range looks well within the realms of real possibility… pic.twitter.com/YB7PEZKzZX
— dave the wave (@davthewave) September 14, 2019
At the very minimum, Bitcoin may not see new highs until one key requirement is satisfied. This, as Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Thomas Lee recently pointed out, requirement will be the S&P 500 breaking to new all-time highs, marking a macroeconomic backdrop of at least short-term bullishness.
Lee explains that while there are tailwinds for BTC, like the aforementioned technicals or Bakkt’s launch, a concrete bearing that traditional markets take will give Bitcoin a good sense of direction.
If S&P 500 breaks to new highs (which we expect), new highs in #bitcoin $BTC should soon follow.
– many bitcoin tailwinds but the trendless macro has been a headwind lately
cc: @CNBC @lizzygurdus
Tom Lee: Bitcoin + S&P 500 heading to new all-time highs https://t.co/c1vpREY4ER
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) September 15, 2019
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