Daten zeigen, dass Bullen für den Ablauf der Bitcoin-Optionen in Höhe von 3,2 Mrd. USD in diesem Monat verantwortlich sind

Nach einer 160% in der Vergangenheit zunehmen 3 Monate, das offene Interesse an Bitcoin (BTC) options reached a new record-high at $12 Milliarde. While this number might seem unusually high, it makes sense that the figure would increase as Bitcoin’s market capitalization surpassed $1 Billion.

Deribit BTC options open interest in USD. Quelle: laevitas.ch

Although Friday’s $3.2 billion expiry could negatively impact the market, these options are split among calls (neutral bis bullisch) und die bärischeren Put-Optionen.

Wie in der obigen Tabelle gezeigt, Deribit exchange leads the market by holding an 85% Marktanteil. For the Feb. 26 Ablauf, 58,500 BTC contracts remain open and this is equivalent to $3.2 Milliarde.

Before jumping to conclusions on whether the outcome might be bullish or bearish, it’s essential to take a more detailed view of the potential buy and sell pressure nearing expiry.

Paying for a $38,000 put (verkaufen) option might have made sense three weeks ago, but this trade is now worthless. Deshalb, to correctly assess the impact of the upcoming expiry, those should be excluded.

Aggregate Feb. 26 BTC options open interest by strike. Quelle: bybt.com

On the opposite side from these worthless put options below $40,000 are some ultra-bullish calls up to $88,000. Considering there’s less than a week left before the expiry, ein 63% BTC price increase seems unlikely.

As shown above chart, the neutral-to-bearish put options are vastly concentrated between $18,000 und $40,000. Zur Zeit, Über 80% of the Feb. 26 put options fall under that range, so they should not be considered for the potential price pressure.

Der Rest 4,550 BTC put option contracts, currently worth $245 Million, present incentives to keep BTC below $52,000.

The more bullish call options ranging from $36,000 zu $56,000 betragen 17,670 BTC contracts, das ist äquivalent zu $955 Millionen in offenen Zinsen. Deshalb, the most relevant options open interest for Feb. 26 stands at $1.2 Milliarden beim Halten eines 0.20 Put-to-Call-Verhältnis.

Deribit Mar. 26 put option prices in BTC. Quelle: Derib

For bears wishing to roll over the position to March 26, das $44,000 put option is currently trading at $1,970 per contract. That would require a 16% downside from the current $54,000 BTC price to generate some profit.

In diesem Moment, bulls are in total control of Friday’s expiry, especially considering the heavy imbalance favoring the buy-side. As for the bearspotential roll-over activity, the risk-reward seems unattractive.

Die hier geäußerten Ansichten und Meinungen sind ausschließlich die der author und spiegeln nicht unbedingt die Ansichten von Cointelegraph wider. Jeder Investitions- und Handelsschritt ist mit Risiken verbunden. Sie sollten Ihre eigenen Untersuchungen durchführen, wenn Sie eine Entscheidung treffen.

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Quelle: Cointelegraph

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