Ist ein Einzelhandelsrausch, der die Bitcoin-Futures verursacht?’ vermarktet übermäßige Hebelwirkung?

Bitcoin (BTC) has breached the $50,000 level on Feb. 16. But while failing to cleanly break the psychological barrier, it undoubtedly displayed the potential for even higher valuations.

inzwischen, futures and options indicators are misaligned, signaling excessive buyers’ Hebelwirkung, while options markets remain calm. After analyzing both markets, one might theorize what has caused this apparent incongruence.

Options skew remained neutral-to-positive

Bei der Analyse von Optionen, das 25% delta skew is the single-most relevant gauge. This indicator compares similar call (Kaufen) und legen (verkaufen) Optionen nebeneinander.

It will turn negative when the put options premium is higher than similar-risk call options. A negative skew translates to a higher cost of downside protection, indicating bullishness.

The opposite holds when market makers are bearish, causing the 25% delta skew indicator to gain positive ground.

Deribit 30-day BTC options 25% Delta-Versatz. Quelle: laevitas.ch

A skew indicator between negative 10% (slightly bullish) and positive 10% (somewhat bearish) is considered normal. In den letzten drei Monaten, there hasn’t been a single occurrence of a 10% or higher 30-day skew, which is usually considered a bearish event.

This data is very encouraging, considering that Bitcoin saw a 24% correction on Jan. 11, in addition to a 19% sell-off ten days later. Noch, there is no evidence that options traders demanded more significant premiums for downside protection.

Futures premium held excessive-optimistic levels

By measuring the expense gap between futures and the regular spot market, a trader can gauge the level of bullishness in the market.

The 3-month futures should usually trade with a 6% zu 20% annualisierte Prämie (Basis) versus regular spot exchanges. Immer wenn diese Anzeige verblasst oder negativ wird, Dies ist eine alarmierende rote Fahne. This situation is known as backwardation and indicates that the market is turning bearish.

Andererseits, eine nachhaltige Basis oben 20% signalisiert übermäßige Hebelwirkung von Käufern, Schaffung des Potenzials für massive Liquidationen und eventuelle Marktcrashs.

Beschädigen. 2021 BTC futures premium. Quelle: NYDIG Digital Assets-Daten

The above chart shows that the indicator bottomed at 1.5% am Jan.. 27 but later reverted to 4.5% and higher as Bitcoin rebounded above $35,000. Even during its darkest periods, the futures premium held above 10% annualized rate, zeigt Optimismus von professionellen Händlern.

inzwischen, die jetzige 5.5% Niveau, äquivalent zu a 50% annualized rate, indicates excessive buyers’ Hebelwirkung. Perpetual futures (inverse swaps) could be the root of this issue, and retail traders more widely use those contracts.

Weekly BTC perpetual futures funding rate. Quelle: NYDIG Digital Assets-Daten

Take notice as the funding rate has exceeded 2.5% pro Woche, thus more than compensating the 50% annualized premium of the March contracts.

Deshalb, arbitrage desks and market makers are likely happy to pay such a hefty premium on fixed-month contracts while simultaneously shorting the perpetual future and profit from the rate difference.

Schlussfolgern, this movement perfectly explains why options markets are relatively neutral while futures markets show excessive buyers’ Hebelwirkung. While institutional clients and whales dominate options volumes, retail traders seem to be the root of such mismatch.

Die hier geäußerten Ansichten und Meinungen sind ausschließlich die der author und spiegeln nicht unbedingt die Ansichten von Cointelegraph wider. Jeder Investitions- und Handelsschritt ist mit Risiken verbunden. Sie sollten Ihre eigenen Untersuchungen durchführen, wenn Sie eine Entscheidung treffen.

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Quelle: Cointelegraph

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