Besteht für Bitcoin das Risiko eines weiteren Rückgangs unter 40.000 USD in einem historisch korrigierenden März??

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a corrective week as the price dropped from $58,000 zu $44,000 in a matter of days. This dropdown caused a panic reaction across the markets as the euphoria was immediately halted.

Zum Beispiel, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index plunged to monthly lows of 56 after being above 90, oder “extreme Gier” for an entire month.

Krypto-Angst & Greed Index. Quelle: Alternative.me

jedoch, such a panic reaction is unwarranted because corrections appear frequently in a bull market as a “zurücksetzen” before continuation. This is organic and healthy and offers a good opportunity for traders and investors to buy the dip.

Rejection at $52,000 indicates further weakness

BTC / USDT 4-Stunden-Chart. Quelle: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows an apparent downtrend since the previous high at $58,000. This high could be the top for the coming months, a period that may see a more prolonged correction.

jedoch, the price action since this top at $58,000 indicates weakness as every support level flips into resistance, indicating further weakness.

The chart shows these flips, bei dem die $55,000 level was the first one. Nachdem, the price of Bitcoin dropped significantly to the support zone around $45,000. This support zone held and resulted in a strong bounce toward $52,000.

Aber, unfortunately for the bulls, this level wasn’t broken and instead saw a rejection, confirming further weakness across the market and more downside for BTC price.

This now paints a clear picture of the critical levels to watch. Ideally, the support zone between $42,500-$44,000 has to hold for further upward momentum. If it fails, further weakness can be expected toward the $37,500-$39,000 Niveau.

But if the $42,500-44,000 support zone holds, higher prices can be expected once Bitcoin breaks above the resistance between $50,000 und $51,000.

The bullish structure is still intact

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Quelle: TradingView

While the lower timeframes indicate weakness for BTC/USD, the higher timeframes suggest a healthy correction. The market construction is still very bullish, wie die obige Tabelle zeigt.

The previous top was at $42,000, after which the new support was established at $30,000. This last top was easily broken as Bitcoin’s price accelerated to the $58,000 hoch. Daher, a correction to even $37,000 could be classified as healthy and organic in this type of bull market.

Einfach gesagt, as long as BTC holds above the $30,000 low of January 2021, the market can be classified as bullish.

March is often a corrective month

XBT/USD 1-week candle chart. Quelle: Handelsansicht

History shows that March isn’t the most bullish month for the cryptocurrency market. In den vergangenen Jahren, corrections have been seen in March. Speziell, corrections of 15%-60% happened in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, und 2020.

The latest crash was caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and could be classified as ablack swan.” Dennoch, corrections tend to happen in March and this year could also see another pullback.

Deshalb, corrections can last for several weeks and are frequently not completed in just one drop. Daher, a correction toward the $35,000-$40,000 is still on the table.

XBT/USD 1-week chart. Quelle: TradingView

The primary indicator to watch for this is the 21-Week MA. Häufig, corrections tend to move toward this line as a key point for a potential reversal. Deshalb, in the coming weeks, this 21-Week MA could provide support in the correction.

Zur Zeit, the 21-Week MA is around $28,000, though this should climb up in the coming weeks toward $33,000-35,000.

Die hier geäußerten Ansichten und Meinungen sind ausschließlich die der Autor und spiegeln nicht unbedingt die Ansichten von Cointelegraph wider. Jeder Investitions- und Handelsschritt ist mit Risiken verbunden. Sie sollten Ihre eigenen Untersuchungen durchführen, wenn Sie eine Entscheidung treffen.

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Quelle: Cointelegraph

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