Despite the fact that Bitcoin is the leading crypto, altcoins — the blanket term given to cryptocurrencies that aren’t BTC — were all the rage in late-2017 and early-2018.
In fact, over the course of the bull run from 2016 to early-2018, Bitcoin dominance fell from over 90% to 33% at the bottom. This so-called “altseason” was catalyzed by a Cambrian explosion in the number and variety of cryptocurrencies, the ICO revolution, and massive growth in older projects like XRP and Ethereum.
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With this move, many investors have become accommodated to the idea that when BTC runs, cryptocurrencies should rally even further. But during Bitcoin’s recent move from $3,150 to the local peak of $14,000, altcoins widely underperformed, as made evident by a 10% uptrend in the Bitcoin dominance stat.
Altseason Unlikely Until Late-2019; Bitcoin to Outperform
For months now, investors on “Crypto Twitter” have been screaming for an altseason. After all, that’s where many traders made their money in 2017’s mania.
According to Adaptive Fund’s Willy Woo, however, investors shouldn’t be holding their breath for altcoins to outperform. In a recent three-part thread, the popular analyst explains that one of his indicators suggests that an altseason won’t occur until at least the end of 2019, even the start of 2020.
As he explains, the signal — a bullish cross of the 365-day moving average of the altcoin market cap against Bitcoin — is still a ways off from coming to fruition.
This is one of my alt-season indicators. A bullish cross of the 365d moving avg of [alt-coin marketcap / BTCUSD]. It’s crude and imperfect, but easy to pull up on TradingView. Alt-season is not guaranteed, if it happens I can’t see it happening till end of 2019 / start of 2020. pic.twitter.com/mOLFhXqky0
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) July 19, 2019
Citing his years of experience in this industry, Woo concludes by reminding his followers that in the long run, a majority of altcoins do not survive, no matter how much money the people running these projects throw into marketing and development. The only “altcoin” that he gave a nod to was Ethereum, which has managed to survive at least four years of market cycles and the rise of “competing” projects.
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Your Alts Will Be Worthless
Woo isn’t the only prominent analyst not exactly expecting altcoins to outpace the market leader anytime soon.
In a recent thread, Joe McCann, the chairman of Node Source and a leading investor, opined that all fundamentals and technicals signal that Bitcoin will be the cryptocurrency to beat for the foreseeable future.
1/ Per a recommendation I share, here are some thoughts on why trading anything but #bitcoin at this point is meaningless.
TL;DR – your alts are going to be worthless.
(RIP my mentions, I know)
— Joe McCann (@joemccann) July 20, 2019
Out of his points, the most notable is that institutions investing directly into digital assets have kept their sights locked on Bitcoin, not XRP or even Ethereum.
Fidelity Investments’ digital asset division is a case in point. The institution’s cryptocurrency arm has only supported Bitcoin thus far, with the division’s arm stating that it is wrestling with adding altcoins due to certain concerns.
You can see a similar trend with the cryptocurrency-focused financial vehicles already on the market, or those that are looking to come to market. Look no further than the incessant stream of crypto-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications and the Bitcoin futures from the CME. Also, notice how Bakkt, who will be testing its first product starting this week, is only releasing Bitcoin futures.
With the cryptocurrency market evidently become one that is Bitcoin-first, it seems improbable that altcoins will begin to gain on the market leader
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