The Fed’s plan to taper a massive monthly economic stimulus pulled stocks down, but BTC ignored critical comments and looks strong heading into Friday’s options expiry.
Over the past seven days, Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to break through the $48,000 resistencia, but its price has remained flat even as Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Neel Kashkari bashed the industry.
During an appearance at the Pacific NorthWest Economic Region Annual Summit on Aug. 17, Kashkari said:
“Hasta aquí, what I’ve seen is [...] 95% fraude, hype, noise and confusion.”
Además, Kashkari specifically targeted Bitcoin when hementioned that its only use case has been funding illicit activities.
Even with the current pullback, Bitcoin investors should be glad that the $44,000 support held because the Federal Reserve also signaled its intent to unwind its $120-billion monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities.
With less stimulus to support the markets, investors naturally become more risk-averse, which could have caused a retracement in Bitcoin’s price.
Con eso en mente, traders should be less worried about Friday’s $600 million Bitcoin options expiry because when the markets hold during potentially negative news, it can be interpreted as bullish.
The call-to-put ratio currently stands at 1.43 and favors the neutral-to-bullish call options. This data reflects the 7,838 Bitcoin call options stacked against the 5,465 poner opciones.
Bulls seem confident in the $44,000 apoyo
Actualmente, there are less than 17 hours until Friday’s expiry, and there is a slim chance that a $50,000 call option could be of any use. This means that even if Bitcoin trades at $49,900 a 8:00 am UTC on Aug. 20, these options become worthless.
Por lo tanto, after excluding the 3,700 ultra-bullish call options contracts above $50,000, the adjusted open interest for the neutral-to-bullish instruments stands at $190 millón.
An expiry price below $48,000 reduces this figure to $138 millón. If bears manage to keep Bitcoin trading below $46,000, solamente $67 million of these call option contracts will take part in Friday’s expiry.
Por último, the bull’s worst-case scenario happens below $44,000 because it wipes out 83% of the neutral-to-bullish call options to leave a meager $24 million open interest in their favor.
Relacionado: Bitcoin slides with S&PAGS 500 as Fed signals tapering $120B monthly bond purchases
Bears need BTC price below $45,000 to balance the situation
Bears seem to have been taken by surprise because 73% of the protective put options have been placed below $44,000. Por consiguiente, the instrument’s open interest would be reduced to $65 million if the Bitcoin expiry takes place above that threshold, and this would give bears a $41 millones de ventaja.
By keeping Bitcoin price below $45,000, bears might keep the open interest virtually balanced between call options and protective puts.
Por último, an expiry price above $46,000 increases the bull’s advantage to $105 millón, which seems like a good enough reason to justify increased buying pressure ahead of Friday’s expiry.
Los puntos de vista y opiniones expresados aquí son únicamente los de la autor y no reflejan necesariamente las opiniones de Cointelegraph. Cada inversión y movimiento comercial implica un riesgo. Debe realizar su propia investigación al tomar una decisión.
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