El fractal de la volatilidad histórica de Bitcoin apunta a una explosión alcista

Bitcoin price has been trapped in a tightening trading range and has barely moved in weeks. The top cryptocurrency by market cap has been boring compared to its characteristically volatile self.

Looking back at the asset’s historic volatility, a fractal pattern could be forming that suggests the price per BTC is about to blast off to unprecedented heights.

Fractals And How History Doesn’t Rhyme But It Often Repeats

Mark Twain said that “history doesn’t repeat, but if often rhymes.” The statement best explains the theory behind repeating price patterns called fractals.

Lectura relacionada | Bitcoin listo para mostrar fuerza, Pero, ¿en qué dirección se romperá?

These fractals appear similar to another point in historic price action, and help analysts to predict and anticipate future market behavior. The results can be mixed, as rarely do things play out exactly the same. This fact has earned fractals a negative reputation, sin embargo, even in Bitcoin there is some specific behavior that can be expected.

bitcoin fractal

Every cycle looks similar by comparison when zooming out | Fuente: BLX en TradingView.com

Por ejemplo, each major breakout past all-time high resulted in a parabolic uptrend and the visual comparisons are undeniable. The most recent uptrend of which has come to a screeching halt, turning a stumble into a full-on 50% or more collapse.

While the market ponders if the bull trend is kaput, even technicals have become mixed. There is a handful of doji candles on the weekly, a tight trading range, and volatility has dropped to an important level. All of these signs point to a potential reaction, and if “history” has anything to do with it, the volatility should be released to the upside.

What Historical Volatility Says About The Bitcoin Bull Run Finale

All throughout nature there are fractal-like patterns that repeat again and again. Price action in financial assets commonly exhibit such repeating behavior, such as cycling between Oso

El mercado bajista se define como un conjunto decreciente de precios para varios tipos de activos.. Un inversor bajista quiere beneficiarse del movimiento de caída de los precios. Puedes pensar en un oso, balanceando su gran pata hacia abajo sobre la inversión, precios aplastantes.

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‘ href =”https://www.newsbtc.com/dictionary/bear/” data-wpel-link =”interno”>bear and bull markets.

Bitcoin is no different, and is known for patterns that appear again and again. Looking back at the Historical Volatility indicator on weekly timeframes, we may have one of those instances brewing.

bitcoin volatility fractal

Mid-cycle consolidation then kicks volatility into high gear | Fuente: BTCUSD en TradingView.com

During the previous bull market, which is clear the current cycle isn’t quite following in terms of “only up” price action, after one of the largest shakeouts, volatility finally held above a key level and kickstarted the last leg of the bull market.

Anyone who had assumed it was the peak of the cycle, would have been left in the dust as Bitcoin churned out another 900%+ of bull market ROI and volatility went parabolic.

Lectura relacionada | Bitcoin Trend Strength Indicator Suggests Bull Run Isn’t Yet Over

Bitcoin is back and trying to hold above a very similar support line, and if successful, should send volatility back along a parabolic curve along with price action. That would put the top of the current bull cycle at around December, which – historically – has marked a significant top or bottom every year since 2017.

Still think history doesn’t rhyme?

Follow @TonySpilotro on Twitter or via the TonyTrades Telegram. Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Imagen destacada de iStockPhoto, Gráficos de TradingView.com

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