¿Las opciones de compra de Bitcoin de entre $ 100.000 y $ 300.000 señalan una trayectoria de precios de BTC alcista??

The open interest on Bitcoin (BTC) dic. 31 call options between $100,000 y $300,000 reached an impressive 6,700 contratos, which is currently worth $385 millón. These derivatives give the buyer the right to acquire Bitcoin for a fixed price, while the seller is obliged to honor it.

One might think that this is a great way to leverage a long position, but it comes at a cost and is usually quite high. For this right, the buyer pays an upfront fee (prima) to the call option seller. Por ejemplo, la $100,000 call option is currently trading at 0.164 BTC, equivalente a $9,480.

Por esta razón, option traders seldomly buy these options by themselves. Por lo tanto, longer-expiry derivatives usually involve multiple strike prices or calendar months.

Bitcoin options block trades. Fuente: Paradigm Telegram Channel

Shown above is an actual trade arranged by Paradigm, an institutional investor-focused over-the-counter trading desk. In this trade, un total de 37 BTC Dec. $100,000 y $140,000 calls have been traded between two of their clients.

Desafortunadamente, there’s no way to know which side the market maker was, but considering the risks involved, one should assume the client was looking for a bullish position.

BTC Calendar Spread simulation. Fuente: Generador de posiciones Deribit

By selling the $140,000 call option and simultaneously buying the more expensive $100,000 llamar, this client paid a $138,000 upfront premium. This amount represents their max loss, which takes place at $100,000 price on Dec. 31.

The red line on the above simulation shows the net outcome at expiry, measured in BTC. mientras tanto, the green line displays the theoretical net return on June 30.

Así, this client needs Bitcoin to trade at $65,600 or higher on June 30 to recoup their investment. This number is significantly lower than the $107,150 required for the break-even if this ‘call spreadstrategy buyer holds until the December expiry.

This phenomenon is caused by the $100,000 call option price appreciation being larger than the $140,000. While a Bitcoin increase to $65,600 is quite relevant for a $100,000 option with six months left, it is not so much for the $140,000 one.

Countless strategies can be achieved by trading ultra-bullish call options, although the buyer doesn’t need to wait for the expiry date to lock in profits. Así, if Bitcoin happens to increase by 30% in a couple of months, it makes sense for this ‘call spreadholder to unwind their position.

As shown in the example above, if Bitcoin reaches $75,000 en junio, the buyer can lock in a $23,000 net profit by closing the position.

While it’s exciting to see exchanges offering massive $100,000 a $300,000 expiries, these figures should not be taken as precise analysis-backed price estimates.

Professional traders use these instruments to conduct bullish but controlled investment strategies.

Los puntos de vista y opiniones expresados ​​aquí son únicamente los de la autorr y no reflejan necesariamente las opiniones de Cointelegraph. Cada inversión y movimiento comercial implica un riesgo. Debe realizar su propia investigación al tomar una decisión.

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Fuente: Cointelegraph

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