Bulls and bears are equally nervous about the possible outcome of the June 25 $1.5 billion Ethereum options expiry.
En Junio 25, Éter (ETH) will face its largest options expiry in 2021 como $1.5 billion worth of open interest will be settled. This figure is 30% larger than March’s 26 expiración, which took place as Ether price plunged 17% en 5 days and bottomed near $1,550.
sin embargo, Ether rallied 56% after March’s options expiry, alcanzando $2,500 dentro de tres semanas. These moves were completely uncorrelated to Bitcoin’s (BTC). Por lo tanto, it is essential to understand if a similar market structure could be underway for June 25 futures and options expiry.
Recent history shows a mix of bullish and bearish catalysts
En marzo 11, Ether miners organized a “show of force” against EIP-1559, which would significantly reduce their revenues.
The situation worsened on March 22, as CoinMetrics launched an “Ethereum Gas Report,” stating that the highly anticipated EIP-1559 network upgrade would unlikely solve the high gas problem.
Things started to change on March 29, as Visa announced plans to use the Ethereum blockchain to settle a transaction made in fiat, and on April 15, the Berlin upgrade was successfully implemented. According to Cointelegraph, after Berlin launched, “the average gas fee began to decline to more manageable levels.”
Before jumping to conclusions and speculating whether these phenomena of the Ether price bottoming near the upcoming $1.5 billion options expiry are bullish or bearish, it’s best first to analyze how large traders are positioned.
Take notice of how June’s expiry holds over 638,000 ETH options contracts, totalizando 45% of the aggregate $3.4 billion open interest.
A diferencia de los contratos de futuros, las opciones se dividen en dos segmentos. Llamada (comprar) options allow the buyer to acquire Ether at a fixed price on the expiry date. Generalmente hablando, these are used on neutral arbitrage trades or bullish strategies.
mientras tanto, the put (vender) options are commonly used to hedge or protect from negative price swings.
For bulls, $2,200 is the line in the sand
Como se muestra arriba, there’s a disproportionate amount of call options at $2,200 and higher strikes. This means that if Ether’s price on June 25 happens to be below this level, 73% of the neutral-to-bullish options will be worthless. los 95,000 call options still in play would represent a $228 million open interest.
Por otra parte, most protective put options have been opened at $2,100 or lower. Por consiguiente, 74% of those neutral-to-bearish options will become worthless if the price stays above this level. Por lo tanto, el restante 73,700 put options would represent a $177 million open interest.
It seems premature to call who might be the winner of this race, but considering Ether’s current $2,400 precio, it looks like both sides are reasonably comfortable.
sin embargo, traders should keep a close eye on this event, especially considering the price impact that surrounded the March expiry.
Los puntos de vista y opiniones expresados aquí son únicamente los de la autor y no reflejan necesariamente las opiniones de Cointelegraph. Cada inversión y movimiento comercial implica un riesgo. Debe realizar su propia investigación al tomar una decisión.
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