After Bitcoin (BTC) price flirted with a $42,000 all-time high on Jan. 8, it stabilized in a tightening range between $39,000 a $41,500 for two days and the pennant structure on the shorter-term timeframes hinted that a breakout to $45,000 was a possibility.
This all changed quite suddenly Jan. 10 as the $39,000 support failed to hold and Bitcoin price entered a steep correction.
A swirling and cruel 26.6% drop took BTC down to $30,100 over the next 30 horas y $1.5 billion in cascading liquidations at derivatives exchanges boosted the correction. Curiosamente, esto ocurrió justo cuando el interés abierto en los futuros de BTC alcanzó un $12.7 mil millones más alto de todos los tiempos.
Today’s price action presents a story of doom, gloom and liquidations, but what it fails to mention is that the Bitcoin price crashed by 20.4% just one week ago as it tested sub $28,000 niveles.
During that similar price event, un total de $1.2 billion in long contracts were liquidated, so the price action of today isn’t so different from what the market experienced just a week ago on Jan. 11.
Como muestra el gráfico anterior, BTC bounced back by 11% one hour after dropping below the $28,000 nivel. What might have surprised traders this time around is the 13% bounce from $32,200 a $36,400 which created a false bottom.
To understand if that’s the case, one should analyze crypto exchanges’ top traders long-to-short ratio and hourly liquidations.
OKEx top traders bought the top
Los datos proporcionados por Exchange destacan a los comerciantes’ posicionamiento neto de largo a corto. Analizando la posición de cada cliente sobre el terreno, contratos perpetuos y futuros, uno puede obtener una visión más clara de si los traders profesionales se inclinan alcistas o bajistas.
Con esto dicho, Hay discrepancias ocasionales en las metodologías entre diferentes intercambios., por lo que los espectadores deben monitorear los cambios en lugar de las cifras absolutas.
The top traders at Binance averaged a 23% posición que favoreció a los largos sobre el pasado 30 dias. This wasn’t the case on Jan. 7, when they started adding long positions until reaching a 59% peak in the early hours of Jan. 10.
This move took place as BTC broke the $37,000 resistance and paved its way to $41,500. Por lo tanto, Binance top traders have been mostly reacting after each BTC price move instead of trying to anticipate it.
Por otra parte, los principales comerciantes de Huobi promediaron un 0.91 relación larga a corta en el último 30 dias, thus favoring net shorts by 9%. From Jan. 8 to the early hours of Jan. 10, these traders had been increasing their shorts, hence profit-taking as BTC failed to break the $42,000 nivel.
This trend reverted as BTC lost the $39,000 apoyo, and Huobi’s top traders reduced their 28% net short to 4% in an attempt to catch the bottom.
Por último, OKEx top traders have been adding long positions, conduciendo el indicador de 1.00 (flat) in the early hours of Jan. 8 a un 1.79 ratio favoring longs in the early hours of Jan. 11.
These traders bought the top and were the ones who were heavily liquidated as the BTC price crashed by 26%. Their long to short ratio hit 1.00 (flat) again just as BTC hit $34,000 el ene. 11.
Bitfinex traders were also caught by surprise
Bitfinex gathers weekly data on top traders’ profit and loss, although it is possible for users to ‘opt-out’ from this ranking. Sobre el pasado 24 horas, the bottom 10 lost a combined $153.3 millón.
Relevant losses during a surprise crash should not mean that Bitfinex traders got it all wrong. Some traders might have been ill-positioned, but overall they have been profit-taking during the rally. As of now, Bitfinex traders are back to a ‘neutral’ position according to its historical levels.
Exchange-provided data shows that Bitfinex’s long-to-short ratio increased from 2 a 9, favoring longs between Nov. 25 and Dec. 21.
To put things in perspective, its 6-month moving average stands at 6, leaning toward longs. Así, considering its leverage data from margin products, these traders have been surprisingly profitable.
20% of crashes are the norm rather than exception
It’s also important to consider that Bitcoin holds a 3.75% daily average volatility. Por lo tanto, Deben esperarse estas grandes correcciones.
Bitcoin enfrentó un 50% intraday decline on Mar. 12, 2020, yet for those patient enough to hold through those bearish periods, an 11x rally followed as the cryptocurrency hiked from $3,600 casi $42,000.
Los puntos de vista y opiniones expresados aquí son únicamente los de la autorr y no reflejan necesariamente las opiniones de Cointelegraph. Cada inversión y movimiento comercial implica un riesgo. Debe realizar su propia investigación al tomar una decisión.
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