Bear’s misplaced belief that Bitcoin price would drop to $32,000 allowed Friday’s BTC options expiry to become unexpectedly balanced.
En Junio 4, un total de 15,530 Bitcoin (BTC) options are set to expire, que representa $575 million in open interest. En este momento, bulls are still heavily impacted by May’s 37% BTC price correction, and this has led most call (comprar) options to be underwater.
Despite the crash, Bitcoin’s active supply reached a five-month low as 45% of the coins have not been moved over the past 2 años. This indicator shows that investors who purchased up until the 2019 bull run are unwilling to sell at the current prices.
Miners are also avoiding sales below $40,000 as their outflows recently reached a seven-month low relative to the historical average.
Mientras tanto, technical analysts pointed to the 50-week exponential moving average as a strong support level close to $34,000. Todavía, the price chart has been forming a pattern of sideways trading that culminates in a narrowing wedge and breakout — known as “compression” — and indicating higher volatility towards the end of the week.
What is clear is that the market is a mixed bag right now, and everyone is grasping at various signals as an attempt to pinpoint the direction of the next trending move.
Bears could have dominated as markets tanked
While bears could have easily dominated Friday’s expiry, it seems they became overconfident by focusing primarily on sub-$32,000 put (vender) opciones.
The initial picture favors bears as the call-to-put ratio stands at 0.84, although this indicator values every option the same. sin embargo, the right to acquire Bitcoin at $46,000 in less than 42 hours is currently worthless, so this call option is trading below $20 cada.
A similar effect is in place for the neutral-to-bearish put options at $28,000 and lower. Holders have no benefit in rolling it over for the upcoming weeks as these contracts also became worthless. Por lo tanto, to better assess how traders are positioned for Friday’s options expiry, one needs to concentrate on the $32,000 a $42,000 rango.
The neutral-to-bull call options up to $42,000 cantidad a 3,080 Bitcoin contracts, representando un $114 million open interest. Por otra parte, put (vender) options down to $32,000 encompass 4,680 Bitcoin contracts, currently worth $173 millón.
As expected, la $60 million difference favoring bears is not enough to cause any disturbance. This situation was caused by excessively bearish bets that did not pay off, potentially leading to the first balanced options expiry in three weeks.
Market makers are leaning bearish
los 25% el sesgo delta proporciona un confiable e instantáneo “miedo y codicia” análisis. Este indicador compara una llamada similar (comprar) y pon (vender) options side by side and will turn positive when the neutral-to-bearish put options premium is higher than similar-risk call options. Esta situación generalmente se considera un “temor” guión, aunque frecuente después de sólidos rallyes.
Por otra parte, un sesgo negativo se traduce en un mayor costo de protección al alza y apunta hacia una tendencia alcista.
Since May 17, the indicator flipped to the “temor” range and peaked multiple at 20% on numerous occasions, signaling a lack of interest to offer protective puts.
There is no doubt that bulls are frightened, but historically those are the best opportunities to buy the dip.
At least for the June 4 vencimiento de opciones, bears no longer dominate the trade. Huobi, OKEx and Deribit expiries take place on June 4 a 8:00 am UTC.
Los puntos de vista y opiniones expresados aquí son únicamente los del autor y no reflejan necesariamente los puntos de vista de Cointelegraph.. Cada inversión y movimiento comercial implica un riesgo. Debe realizar su propia investigación al tomar una decisión.
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