Don’t fight the trendis an old saying in the markets, and there are other variants of the phrase likenever catch a falling knife.The bottom line is that traders should not try to anticipate trend reversals, or even worse, try to improve their average price while losing money.

It really doesn’t matter whether one is trading soy futures, argent, stocks or cryptocurrencies. Markets generally move in cycles, which can last from a few days to a couple of years. In Bitcoin’s (BTC) case, it’s hard for anyone to justify a bullish case by looking at the chart below.

Bitcoin price in USD at Coinbase. La source: TradingView

Dans le passé 25 journées, every attempt to break the descending channel has been abruptly interrupted. Avec curiosité, the trend points to sub-$40,000 by mid-October, which happens to be the deadline for the United States Securities and Exchange Commission decision on the ProShares Bitcoin ETF (oct. 18) and Invesco Bitcoin ETF (oct. 19).

According to the CoinShares weekly report, the recent price action triggered institutional investors to enter the sixth consecutive week of inflows. There has been nearly $100 million worth of inflows between Sept. 20 et 24.

Experienced traders claim that Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $43,600 support for the bullish trend to resume. pendant ce temps, on-chain data points to heavy accumulation, as the falling exchange supply has been dominant.

Perpetual futures show traders neutral to bearish

To gauge investor sentiment, one should analyze the funding rate on perpetual contracts because these are retail traderspreferred instruments. Contrairement aux contrats mensuels, perpetual futures (swaps inverses) négocier à un prix très similaire aux échanges au comptant réguliers.

Le taux de financement est automatiquement facturé toutes les huit heures à partir de longs (acheteurs) en exigeant plus de levier. toutefois, quand la situation s'inverse, et short (les vendeurs) sont surendettés, the funding rate turns negative, and they become the ones paying the fee.

Bitcoin perpetual futures 8-hour funding rate. La source: Bybt.com

A ‘neutralsituation involves leverage longs paying a small fee, oscillating from 0% à 0.03% per eight-hour period, ce qui équivaut à 0.6% par semaine. Encore, the above chart shows a slightly bearish trend since Sept. 13, when the funding rate was last seen above the 0.03% seuil.

The put-to-call ratio favors bulls, but the trend has changed

Unlike futures contracts, options are divided into two segments. Call (acheter) options allow the buyer to acquire Bitcoin at a fixed price on the expiry date. En général, these are used on either neutral arbitrage trades or bullish strategies.

pendant ce temps, the put (vendre) options are commonly used as protection from negative price swings.

To understand how these competing forces are balanced, one should compare the calls and put options open interest.

Bitcoin options open interest put-to-call ratio. La source: Laevitas.ch

The indicator reached a 0.47 bottom on Aug. 29, reflecting the 50,000 BTC protective puts stacked against the 104k BTC call (acheter) options. Encore, the gap has been decreasing as the use of neutral-to-bearish put contracts started to get traction after the Sept. 24 expiration mensuelle.

According to Bitcoin futures and options markets, it might seem premature to call a ‘bearish’ période, but the last two weeks show absolutely no signs of bullishness from derivatives indicators. It appears that bullshope clings on to the ETF deadline acting as a trigger to break the current market structure.

Les vues et opinions exprimées ici sont uniquement celles de auteur et ne reflètent pas nécessairement les vues de Cointelegraph. Chaque mouvement d'investissement et de trading comporte des risques. Vous devez mener vos propres recherches lorsque vous prenez une décision.