Bear’s misplaced belief that Bitcoin price would drop to $32,000 allowed Friday’s BTC options expiry to become unexpectedly balanced.
On June 4, un total de 15,530 Bitcoin (BTC) options are set to expire, qui représente $575 millions en intérêt ouvert. En ce moment, bulls are still heavily impacted by May’s 37% BTC price correction, and this has led most call (acheter) options to be underwater.
Despite the crash, Bitcoin’s active supply reached a five-month low as 45% of the coins have not been moved over the past 2 ans. This indicator shows that investors who purchased up until the 2019 bull run are unwilling to sell at the current prices.
Miners are also avoiding sales below $40,000 as their outflows recently reached a seven-month low relative to the historical average.
Pendant ce temps, technical analysts pointed to the 50-week exponential moving average as a strong support level close to $34,000. Encore, the price chart has been forming a pattern of sideways trading that culminates in a narrowing wedge and breakout — known as “compression” — and indicating higher volatility towards the end of the week.
What is clear is that the market is a mixed bag right now, and everyone is grasping at various signals as an attempt to pinpoint the direction of the next trending move.
Bears could have dominated as markets tanked
While bears could have easily dominated Friday’s expiry, it seems they became overconfident by focusing primarily on sub-$32,000 put (vendre) options.
The initial picture favors bears as the call-to-put ratio stands at 0.84, although this indicator values every option the same. toutefois, the right to acquire Bitcoin at $46,000 in less than 42 hours is currently worthless, so this call option is trading below $20 chaque.
A similar effect is in place for the neutral-to-bearish put options at $28,000 and lower. Holders have no benefit in rolling it over for the upcoming weeks as these contracts also became worthless. Par conséquent, to better assess how traders are positioned for Friday’s options expiry, one needs to concentrate on the $32,000 à $42,000 intervalle.
The neutral-to-bull call options up to $42,000 s'élever à 3,080 Bitcoin contracts, représentant un $114 million open interest. D'autre part, mettre (vendre) options down to $32,000 encompass 4,680 Bitcoin contracts, vaut actuellement $173 million.
As expected, la $60 million difference favoring bears is not enough to cause any disturbance. This situation was caused by excessively bearish bets that did not pay off, potentially leading to the first balanced options expiry in three weeks.
Market makers are leaning bearish
le 25% delta skew fournit un fiable et instantané “peur et cupidité” une analyse. Cet indicateur compare un appel similaire (acheter) et met (vendre) options side by side and will turn positive when the neutral-to-bearish put options premium is higher than similar-risk call options. Cette situation est généralement considérée comme un “peur” scénario, bien que fréquents après de solides rallyes.
D'autre part, un biais négatif se traduit par un coût plus élevé de la protection à la hausse et indique une tendance haussière.
Since May 17, the indicator flipped to the “peur” range and peaked multiple at 20% on numerous occasions, signaling a lack of interest to offer protective puts.
There is no doubt that bulls are frightened, but historically those are the best opportunities to buy the dip.
At least for the June 4 expiration des options, bears no longer dominate the trade. Huobi, OKEx and Deribit expiries take place on June 4 à 8:00 am UTC.
Les vues et opinions exprimées ici sont uniquement celles de l'auteur et ne reflètent pas nécessairement les vues de Cointelegraph. Chaque mouvement d'investissement et de trading comporte des risques. Vous devez mener vos propres recherches lorsque vous prenez une décision.
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La source: Cointelegraph