Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a descending pattern since the strong $53,000 rejection that occurred on Sept. 7, e il $3.4 billion futures contracts liquidation along with China’s ban on crypto trading appear to have severely impacted tradersmorale.

Adding to the negative sentiment, major crypto exchanges like Binance and Huobi halted some services in mainland China, and some of the largest Ethereum mining pools, like Sparkpool and BeePool were forced to shut down completely.

Prezzo Bitcoin in USD su Coinbase. fonte: TradingView

Based on the above chart, it is possible to understand why buyers placed 80% of their bets at $44,000 o più alto. però, the past two weeks definitively caused those call (acquistare) options to lose value quickly.

Il sett. 25, la Banca Popolare Cinese (PBoC) posted a nationwide ban on crypto and barred companies from providing financial transactions and services to market participants. The news triggered an 8% dip in Bitcoin’s price along with a broader pullback on altcoins.

The bearish sentiment was confirmed after Tesla CEO Elon Musk expressed his support for cryptocurrency at the Code Conference in California.

Musk ha detto:

It is not possible to, credo, destroy crypto, but it is possible for governments to slow down its advancement.

Had we been in a neutral-to-bullish market, those remarks would likely have reversed the negative trend. Per esempio, a luglio 21, Elon Musk said that Bitcoin had already hit his benchmark on renewable energy. Di conseguenza, Prezzo Bitcoin, which had previously dropped 12% in ten days, reverted the move and hiked 35% over the next ten days.

The Oct. 1 expiry will be a strength test for bulls because any price below $42,000 means a bloodbath with absolute dominance of put (vendere) opzioni.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Oct. 1. fonte:

Inizialmente, il $285 million neutral-to-bullish instruments dominated the weekly expiry by 21% rispetto al $320 million puts (vendere) opzioni.

però, il 1.21 call-to-put ratio is deceiving because the excessive optimism seen from bulls could wipe out most of their bets if Bitcoin price remains below $43,000 a 8:00 am UTC on Friday.

Dopotutto, a che serve il diritto di acquisire Bitcoin a $50,000 se viene scambiato al di sotto di quel prezzo?

Bears were also caught by surprise

Sixty-six percent of the put options, where the buyer holds a right to sell Bitcoin at a pre-established price, has been placed at $42,000 o inferiore. These neutral-to-bearish instruments will become worthless if Bitcoin trades above that price on Friday morning.

Di seguito sono riportati i quattro scenari più probabili che considerano gli attuali livelli di prezzo. Lo squilibrio a favore di entrambe le parti rappresenta il potenziale profitto dalla scadenza.

The data shows how many contracts will be available on Friday, a seconda del prezzo di scadenza.

  • Fra $40,000 e $41,000: 110 chiamate vs. 4,470 mette. Il risultato netto è $175 milioni favorendo il put protettivo (orso) strumenti.
  • Fra $41,000 e $43,000: 640 chiamate vs. 4,000 mette. The net result continues to favor bears by $140 milioni.
  • Fra $43,000 e $45,000: 1,780 chiamate vs. 2,070 mette. Il risultato netto è equilibrato tra ribassisti e rialzisti.
  • Sopra $45,000: 2,530 chiamate vs. 1,090 mette. The net result shifts in favor of bulls by $65 milioni.

Questa stima grezza considera la chiamata (acquistare) options used in bullish strategies and put (vendere) options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Sfortunatamente, real life is not that simple because it’s possible that more complex investment strategies are being deployed.

Per esempio, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining a positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price. Di conseguenza, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect, so the simple analysis above is a good guess.

As things currently stand, bears have absolute control of the Oct. 1 expiry and they have a few good reasons to keep pressuring the price below $43,000.

Unless some unexpected buying pressure comes out over the next 12 ore, the amount of capital required for bulls to force the market above the $45,000 threshold seems immense and unjustified.

D'altra parte, bears need a 5% negative price swing that takes BTC below $41,000 to increase their lead by $35 milioni. So this move also shows little return for the amount of effort required.

The bull’s only hope resides in some surprise positive newsflow for Bitcoin price ahead of Oct. 1 a 8:00 sono UTC. If any sensible action is bound to occur, it will likely take place during the weekend, when there’s less active flow.

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