Bear’s misplaced belief that Bitcoin price would drop to $32,000 allowed Friday’s BTC options expiry to become unexpectedly balanced.
On June 4, un totale di 15,530 Bitcoin (BTC) options are set to expire, che rappresenta $575 million in open interest. Al momento, bulls are still heavily impacted by May’s 37% BTC price correction, and this has led most call (acquistare) options to be underwater.
Despite the crash, Bitcoin’s active supply reached a five-month low as 45% of the coins have not been moved over the past 2 anni. This indicator shows that investors who purchased up until the 2019 bull run are unwilling to sell at the current prices.
Miners are also avoiding sales below $40,000 as their outflows recently reached a seven-month low relative to the historical average.
Nel frattempo, technical analysts pointed to the 50-week exponential moving average as a strong support level close to $34,000. Ancora, the price chart has been forming a pattern of sideways trading that culminates in a narrowing wedge and breakout — known as “compression” — and indicating higher volatility towards the end of the week.
What is clear is that the market is a mixed bag right now, and everyone is grasping at various signals as an attempt to pinpoint the direction of the next trending move.
Bears could have dominated as markets tanked
While bears could have easily dominated Friday’s expiry, it seems they became overconfident by focusing primarily on sub-$32,000 put (vendere) opzioni.
The initial picture favors bears as the call-to-put ratio stands at 0.84, although this indicator values every option the same. però, the right to acquire Bitcoin at $46,000 in less than 42 hours is currently worthless, so this call option is trading below $20 ogni.
A similar effect is in place for the neutral-to-bearish put options at $28,000 and lower. Holders have no benefit in rolling it over for the upcoming weeks as these contracts also became worthless. Perciò, to better assess how traders are positioned for Friday’s options expiry, one needs to concentrate on the $32,000 per $42,000 gamma.
The neutral-to-bull call options up to $42,000 ammonta a 3,080 Bitcoin contracts, che rappresenta a $114 million open interest. D'altra parte, put (vendere) options down to $32,000 encompass 4,680 Bitcoin contracts, attualmente vale $173 milioni.
As expected, il $60 million difference favoring bears is not enough to cause any disturbance. This situation was caused by excessively bearish bets that did not pay off, potentially leading to the first balanced options expiry in three weeks.
Market makers are leaning bearish
Il 25% delta skew fornisce un affidabile e istantaneo “paura e avidità” analisi. Questo indicatore confronta chiamate simili (acquistare) e metti (vendere) options side by side and will turn positive when the neutral-to-bearish put options premium is higher than similar-risk call options. Questa situazione è generalmente considerata a “paura” scenario, sebbene frequente dopo solide manifestazioni.
D'altra parte, uno skew negativo si traduce in un costo più elevato della protezione al rialzo e punta verso il rialzo.
Since May 17, the indicator flipped to the “paura” range and peaked multiple at 20% on numerous occasions, signaling a lack of interest to offer protective puts.
There is no doubt that bulls are frightened, but historically those are the best opportunities to buy the dip.
At least for the June 4 scadenza delle opzioni, bears no longer dominate the trade. Huobi, OKEx and Deribit expiries take place on June 4 a 8:00 am UTC.
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