Don’t fight the trendis an old saying in the markets, and there are other variants of the phrase likenever catch a falling knife.The bottom line is that traders should not try to anticipate trend reversals, or even worse, try to improve their average price while losing money.

It really doesn’t matter whether one is trading soy futures, 銀, stocks or cryptocurrencies. Markets generally move in cycles, which can last from a few days to a couple of years. In Bitcoin’s (BTC) 場合, it’s hard for anyone to justify a bullish case by looking at the chart below.

Coinbaseでの米ドルでのビットコイン価格. ソース: TradingView

過去に 25 日々, every attempt to break the descending channel has been abruptly interrupted. 不思議なことに, the trend points to sub-$40,000 by mid-October, which happens to be the deadline for the United States Securities and Exchange Commission decision on the ProShares Bitcoin ETF (10月. 18) and Invesco Bitcoin ETF (10月. 19).

According to the CoinShares weekly report, the recent price action triggered institutional investors to enter the sixth consecutive week of inflows. There has been nearly $100 million worth of inflows between Sept. 20 そして 24.

Experienced traders claim that Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $43,600 support for the bullish trend to resume. その間, on-chain data points to heavy accumulation, as the falling exchange supply has been dominant.

Perpetual futures show traders neutral to bearish

To gauge investor sentiment, one should analyze the funding rate on perpetual contracts because these are retail traderspreferred instruments. 月額契約とは異なり, perpetual futures (逆スワップ) 通常のスポット取引所と非常に類似した価格で取引する.

資金調達率は、ロングから8時間ごとに自動的に請求されます (バイヤー) より多くのレバレッジを要求するとき. しかしながら, 状況が逆転したとき, とショーツ (売り手) レバレッジが高すぎる, the funding rate turns negative, そして彼らは料金を払うものになります.

ビットコイン永久先物8時間の資金調達率. ソース: Bybt.com

A ‘neutralsituation involves leverage longs paying a small fee, oscillating from 0% に 0.03% per eight-hour period, これは 0.6% 週あたり. まだ, the above chart shows a slightly bearish trend since Sept. 13, when the funding rate was last seen above the 0.03% しきい値.

The put-to-call ratio favors bulls, but the trend has changed

先物契約とは異なり, オプションは2つのセグメントに分かれています. コール (購入) options allow the buyer to acquire Bitcoin at a fixed price on the expiry date. 一般的に言えば, これらは中立的な裁定取引または強気な戦略のいずれかで使用されます.

その間, プット (売る) options are commonly used as protection from negative price swings.

これらの競合する力がどのようにバランスされているかを理解する, one should compare the calls and put options open interest.

Bitcoin options open interest put-to-call ratio. ソース: Laevitas.ch

The indicator reached a 0.47 bottom on Aug. 29, reflecting the 50,000 BTC protective puts stacked against the 104k BTC call (購入) オプション. それでも, the gap has been decreasing as the use of neutral-to-bearish put contracts started to get traction after the Sept. 24 monthly expiry.

According to Bitcoin futures and options markets, it might seem premature to call a ‘bearishperiod, but the last two weeks show absolutely no signs of bullishness from derivatives indicators. It appears that bullshope clings on to the ETF deadline acting as a trigger to break the current market structure.

ここに記載されている見解や意見は、 著者 必ずしもコインテレグラフの見解を反映しているわけではありません. すべての投資と取引の動きにはリスクが伴います. 決定を下すときは、独自の調査を行う必要があります.