ビットコイン先物プレミアムヒット 30% でもアナリストは「今回は違う」と言っています

行進 30 could become a historical day that will be remembered by Bitcoin (BTC) fans for a long time. Besides marking a 17% recovery from the $50,300 bottom on March 25, PayPal officially confirmed that it will support crypto payments for U.S. 顧客. さらに, CME Group announced that its Micro Bitcoin futures contracts will launch on May 3 with the contract size starting at 0.1 各BTC.

Additional bullish news came as Morning Brew, a daily business newsletter with 2.5 million subscribers, finally dropped gold and is now exhibiting Bitcoin price in its markets section alongside the S&P 500, ナスダック, Dow, 10-Year Treasury and JPMorgan stock.

行進 30 also marks 3 weeks of BTC price having a daily candle close above $50,000. したがって、, as the market indicates a healthy consolidation period, traders should closely monitor the levels of leverage being used by investors. 歴史的に, crashes tend to occur when buyers are excessively optimistic and any sharp price movement larger than 8% tends to trigger larger cascading liquidations.

BTC price at Binance, 米ドル. ソース: TradingView

The open interest on Bitcoin futures shows the size of the current longs and shorts and whenever this number increases substantially, it means investors have a larger risk exposure. したがって、, it shows increasing market interest in the asset but this also comes at the cost of potentially sizable liquidations.

BTC先物は米ドルで建玉を集計します. ソース: Bybt

The above chart shows a 105% increase in futures open interest over the last two months. その間, the current $22.6 billion indicator remains only 2% 史上最高値を下回る.

Even though Bitcoin’s price surge can explain part of this hike, it also reflects renewed confidence as longs have been liquidated on $7.4 billion between March 14 と3月 24.

To understand how bullish or bearish professional traders are leaning, one should analyze the futures basis rate. Basis is also frequently referred to as the futures premium and it measures the difference between longer-term futures contracts and the current spot market levels.

A 10% に 20% 年間保険料 (基礎) ニュートラルとして解釈されます, or a situation known as contango. This price difference is caused by sellers demanding more money to withhold settlement longer.

OKEx BTC 3-month futures basis. ソース: 斜め

行進に 13, BTC markets entered an excessive-leverage situation as the basis rate neared 35%. 楽観的であること, 特に強気の市場で, should not be deemed worrisome. しかしながら, as the price dropped 11% following the $61,800 史上最高, these ultra-leveraged buyers had their positions terminated.

今回は, the basis rate hovers around 29%, which is reasonably high but the figure could adjust itself over the next couple of days. These leveraged buyers might increase their margins or buy BTC on regular spot exchanges to subsequently reduce their futures position.

Although longs seem to be excessively leveraged, there are currently no signs of potential market stress that hint at a negative outcome if BTC price drops to $53,000. As most of the recent open interest increase happened in early-March, the long’s average price is likely not much higher than this.

ここに記載されている見解や意見は、 著者 必ずしもコインテレグラフの見解を反映しているわけではありません. すべての投資と取引の動きにはリスクが伴います. 決定を下すときは、独自の調査を行う必要があります.

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ソース: コインテレグラフ

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