ビットコインの価格が48,000ドルを下回った, しかし、強気相場は危機に瀕しています?

ビットコインの (BTC) price has been grinding up nicely over the past few weeks, but the past 24 hours have seen a significant correction. BTC price dropped by over $10,000 から $58,000 to under $48,000, a correction of almost 20%.

This pullback — which many anticipated as 28,000 BTC was deposited to Gemini — also caused other cryptocurrencies to fall alongside Bitcoin, resulting in Bitcoin’s market dominance rising as a result.

But will history repeat and produce a dull, corrective March? Let’s analyze the charts.

Bearish divergence implying further downside to come

BTC / USDT4時間足チャート. ソース: TradingView

Markets never go up in a straight line, and corrections must occur from time to time. This can be considered a “リセット” 市場向け, which reverts back to the mean trendline, and the euphoria fades.

At the first stage of a correction, people still expect the corrective move to be a tiny correction, while the sentiment slowly starts to shift. The moment the correction continues, the lower the price goes, the worse the sentiment becomes.

At the bottom, Bitcoin will be calleddeadand a Ponzi once again, after which the price has historically recovered.

The critical question now, しかしながら, is whether the market will see a prolonged correction or if Bitcoin’s price will hold above the green box shown in the chart above. That green box is the previous period of compression that technically should serve as major support.

If the area between $42,000-44,000 ホールド, upward continuation is likely. In that case, the point of interest at $63,000 is still on the table.

しかしながら, the bearish divergence and the weakness at the start of this week suggest more downside is possible. In that regard, losing the $42,000-44,000 area could result in a further correction toward $37,000.

March historically isn’t a bullish month

BTC/USD 1-week chart. ソース: TradingView

The weekly chart for Bitcoin shows some beautiful historical data, which shows that March tends to be a period of correction or consolidation. Massive corrections happened in 2017, 2018 そして 2020 during this period, 一方 2016 そして 2019 saw sideways price action.

もちろん, history is not guaranteed to repeat, but history rhymes and historical data often provides insight into how market cycles work.

In that regard, the critical indicator to watch is the 21-Week MA, which should hold Bitcoin’s price from dropping further. In that perspective, the current price level of the 21-Week MA is found at $28,000, and this will crawl up to $32,000-$34,000 in the coming weeks.

したがって、, the recent higher low is created at $30,000, which means that a further drop toward $38,000-$40,000 is not unlikely as that would be a regular 30-40% 補正.

Critical levels to watch for Bitcoin

XBT/USD 1-day chart. ソース: TradingView

The daily chart of Bitcoin shows some critical levels to watch for the current period. まず第一に, the recent drop-down brought Bitcoin’s price to a vital support level. It should hold this zone between $42,000-44,000 to avoid more downside.

If this doesn’t hold, a further drop to the level around $37,000 is likely. This would also grant a retest of the 21-Week MA.

しかしながら, if the green zone between $42,000-44,000 does provide support, a rebound is likely toward $63,000, as previously stated.

しかしながら, this is too early to call, as historically, the end of February and March is a corrective and not a bullish period for the markets in general.

ここに記載されている見解や意見は、 著者 必ずしもコインテレグラフの見解を反映しているわけではありません. すべての投資と取引の動きにはリスクが伴います. 決定を下すときは、独自の調査を行う必要があります.

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ソース: コインテレグラフ

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