Margin trading allows investors to borrow stablecoins or cryptocurrency to leverage their position and improve the expected return. 例えば, borrowing Tether (USDT) will allow one to buy Bitcoin (BTC), thus increasing their Bitcoin long position.

Investors can also borrow BTC to margin trade a short position, thus betting on price downside. This is why some analysts monitor the total lending amounts of Bitcoin and Tether to gain insight into whether investors are leaning bullish or bearish.

Are analysts flipping bearish based only on Bitfinex’s margin data?

今週, some prominent analysts cited a surge in Bitcoin short positions on Bitfinex, でピークに達する 6,621 BTC on June 7. Cointelegraphが報告したように, independent researcher Fomocap found a visible correlation between margined short positions and the May 19 price crash.

しかしながら, when analyzing a broader scope of data — including the margin longs, perpetual contracts funding rate and protective put options — there is no evidence of prominent players preparing for a surprise negative move.

A single instance of Bitcoin margin shorts spiking ahead of the negative price swing should not be considered a leading indicator. さらに, one needs to factor in Bitcoin margin longs — an opposing, usually larger force.

Bitfinex margin Bitcoin/USD longs/shorts ratio. ソース: TradingView

As the above chart indicates, even on May 17 the number of BTC/USD long margin contracts outpaced shorts by 3.6, で 39,000 BTC. 実際には, the last time this indicator dropped below 2.0, favoring longs, was on Nov. 26, 2020. The result was not good for the shorts, as Bitcoin rallied 64% over the following 30 日々.

OKEx USDT/BTC lending ratio. ソース: OKEx

Whenever traders borrow Tether and stablecoins, they are likely long on cryptocurrencies. 一方, BTC borrowing is mainly used for short positions.

Theoretically, whenever the USDT/BTC lending ratio goes up, the market is angled in a bullish manner. The ratio at OKEx bottomed at 3.5 5月に 20, favoring longs, but it quickly returned to the 5.5 レベル. したがって、, there is no evidence of a significant movement favoring shorts on margin markets.

The perpetual futures funding rate is still flat

Perpetual futures prices trade very close to regular spot exchanges, making the lives of retail traders a lot easier because they no longer need to calculate the futures premium.

This magic can only be achieved by the funding rate charged from longs (バイヤー) when demanding more leverage. しかしながら, when the situation is reversed and shorts (売り手) are over-leveraged, the funding rate goes negative, and they become the ones paying the fee.

Bitcoin perpetual futures 8-hour funding rate. ソース: Bybt

As displayed above, the funding rate has been mostly flat since May 19. Had there been a massive surge for shorting demand, the indicator would have reflected the move.

The options put-to-call ratio remains bullish

呼び出し (購入) オプションは買い手に上向きの価格保護を提供します, そしてプット (売る) 反対のことをします. これは、中立から弱気の戦略を目指すトレーダーは通常プットオプションに依存することを意味します. 一方, コールオプションは強気のポジションによく使用されます.

Aggregate Bitcoin put-to-call options ratio. ソース: CryptoRank

Take notice of how the neutral-to-bullish call options outnumber the protective puts by nearly 90%. Had professional traders and whales been anticipating a market crash, this ratio would have been positively impacted.

Investors should not make trading decisions based on a single indicator, as the remaining markets and exchanges may not corroborate it. 今のところ, there is absolutely no indication that heavy players are betting on Bitcoin short positions.

ここに記載されている見解や意見は、 著者 必ずしもコインテレグラフの見解を反映しているわけではありません. すべての投資と取引の動きにはリスクが伴います. 決定を下すときは、独自の調査を行う必要があります.