Bulls and bears are equally nervous about the possible outcome of the June 25 $1.5 billion Ethereum options expiry.
6月に 25, エーテル (ETH) will face its largest options expiry in 2021 なので $1.5 billion worth of open interest will be settled. This figure is 30% larger than March’s 26 有効期限, which took place as Ether price plunged 17% に 5 days and bottomed near $1,550.
しかしながら, Ether rallied 56% after March’s options expiry, 到達 $2,500 3週間以内. These moves were completely uncorrelated to Bitcoin’s (BTC). したがって、, it is essential to understand if a similar market structure could be underway for June 25 futures and options expiry.
Recent history shows a mix of bullish and bearish catalysts
行進に 11, Ether miners organized a “show of force” against EIP-1559, which would significantly reduce their revenues.
The situation worsened on March 22, as CoinMetrics launched an “イーサリアムガスレポート,” stating that the highly anticipated EIP-1559 network upgrade would unlikely solve the high gas problem.
Things started to change on March 29, as Visa announced plans to use the Ethereum blockchain to settle a transaction made in fiat, and on April 15, the Berlin upgrade was successfully implemented. According to Cointelegraph, after Berlin launched, “the average gas fee began to decline to more manageable levels.”
Before jumping to conclusions and speculating whether these phenomena of the Ether price bottoming near the upcoming $1.5 billion options expiry are bullish or bearish, it’s best first to analyze how large traders are positioned.
Take notice of how June’s expiry holds over 638,000 ETH options contracts, 合計 45% of the aggregate $3.4 billion open interest.
先物契約とは異なり, オプションは2つのセグメントに分かれています. コール (購入) オプションにより、購入者は有効期限に固定価格でEtherを取得できます. 一般的に言えば, these are used on neutral arbitrage trades or bullish strategies.
その間, プット (売る) options are commonly used to hedge or protect from negative price swings.
雄牛の場合, $2,200 is the line in the sand
上に表示されているように, there’s a disproportionate amount of call options at $2,200 and higher strikes. This means that if Ether’s price on June 25 happens to be below this level, 73% of the neutral-to-bullish options will be worthless. ザ・ 95,000 call options still in play would represent a $228 million open interest.
一方, most protective put options have been opened at $2,100 or lower. その結果、, 74% of those neutral-to-bearish options will become worthless if the price stays above this level. したがって、, 残り 73,700 put options would represent a $177 million open interest.
It seems premature to call who might be the winner of this race, but considering Ether’s current $2,400 価格, it looks like both sides are reasonably comfortable.
しかしながら, traders should keep a close eye on this event, especially considering the price impact that surrounded the March expiry.
ここに記載されている見解や意見は、 著者 必ずしもコインテレグラフの見解を反映しているわけではありません. すべての投資と取引の動きにはリスクが伴います. 決定を下すときは、独自の調査を行う必要があります.