ビットコイン (BTC) has been trading in a descending channel pattern since its $67,000 all-time high on Oct. 20, which was just one day after ProShares’ Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) debuted at Nasdaq.

しかしながら, bulls have a sufficient number of incentives to peg Bitcoin’s price above $60,000 10月に. 29 when the $3.2 billion monthly options expiry settles.

Coinbaseでの米ドルでのビットコイン価格. ソース: TradingView

現在, investors are displaying mixed feelings about the exchange-traded fund’s approval, even though it reached $1 billion in assets under management in 48 時間. Either market expectations for these funds were insanely high, or the 42% gain in October until Oct. 19 was previously priced into the event.

The regulatory uncertainty in the United States is also a decisive factor in keeping some large institutional investors from entering the sector. At an Oct. 26 hearing of the United States Senate Committee, Rostin Behnam, the acting chairperson of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), likened the government agency’s enforcement of the digital asset space to a beat cop on duty.

Behnam added:

The market transactions that are taking place right now are a huge part of the risk that digital assets pose.

Bulls are in for a potential $715 million profit

通常、, these remarks would have little to no impact on a bullish market, which raises the question of whether the 13% correction since the Oct. 20 all-time high marks the end of a positive cycle.

The Oct. 29 monthly expiry will be a strength test for bears because any price above $58,000 means a $385 million or higher profit for bulls.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Oct. 29. ソース: Bybt

At first sight, インクルード $1.94 billion call (購入) instruments dominate the monthly expiry by 56% と比較して $1.24 billion put (売る) オプション.

しかしながら, インクルード 1.56 call-to-put ratio is deceiving because bears were caught by surprise and will have most of their put options wiped out if Bitcoin’s price remains above $58,000 で 8:00 am UTC on Oct. 29.

Owning a put option, which is the right to sell Bitcoin at $55,000, becomes worthless if BTC price is trading above that level.

Bulls are comfortable above $58,000

Sixty-eight percent of the put options, which denotes the right to sell Bitcoin at a pre-established price, に配置されています $58,000 以下.

以下は、現在の価格レベルを考慮した最も可能性の高い4つのシナリオです。. 加えて, the data shows how many contracts will be available on Oct. 20 for both bulls (コール) とクマ (置く) 楽器.

  • の間に $52,000 そして $55,000: 6,500 通話vs. 6,530 プット. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.
  • の間に $55,000 そして $58,000: 9,510 通話vs. 4,610 プット. The net result favors bulls by $270 百万.
  • の間に $58,000 そして $60,000: 9,900 通話vs. 3,490 プット. The net result continues to favor bulls by $385 百万.
  • 上 $60,000: 13,870 通話vs. 1,970 プット. The net result will benefit bulls by $715 百万.

上に示したように, the imbalance favoring either side represents the potential theoretical profit from the expiry.

この大まかな見積もりでは、 (購入) options used in bullish strategies and put (売る) 中立から弱気の取引のみのオプション. しかしながら, トレーダーはプットオプションを売った可能性があります, 特定の価格を超えるビットコインへの積極的なエクスポージャーを効果的に獲得する. 残念ながら, この効果を推定する簡単な方法はありません.

Can bears pin Bitcoin below $55,000?

クマは必要です 6% 現在からの修正 $58,500 price to avoid a $270 百万の損失. Although it might not seem much at first, traders must also account for the bullish momentum brought by the ETF approval.

With less than 36 hours ahead of the Oct. 29 有効期限, bulls are likely to secure a win by keeping Bitcoin above $59,000. As for the bears, the path to sub-$55,000 seems distant, but might be worthy.

ここに記載されている見解や意見は、 著者 必ずしもコインテレグラフの見解を反映しているわけではありません. すべての投資と取引の動きにはリスクが伴います. 決定を下すときは、独自の調査を行う必要があります.