歴史的に是正された3月にビットコインがさらに4万ドルを下回るリスクがあるか?

ビットコイン (BTC) has seen a corrective week as the price dropped from $58,000 に $44,000 数日のうちに. This dropdown caused a panic reaction across the markets as the euphoria was immediately halted.

例えば, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index plunged to monthly lows of 56 after being above 90, または “極端な欲” for an entire month.

暗号恐怖 & 貪欲指数. ソース: Alternative.me

しかしながら, such a panic reaction is unwarranted because corrections appear frequently in a bull market as a “リセット” before continuation. This is organic and healthy and offers a good opportunity for traders and investors to buy the dip.

Rejection at $52,000 indicates further weakness

BTC / USDT4時間足チャート. ソース: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows an apparent downtrend since the previous high at $58,000. This high could be the top for the coming months, a period that may see a more prolonged correction.

しかしながら, the price action since this top at $58,000 indicates weakness as every support level flips into resistance, indicating further weakness.

The chart shows these flips, where the $55,000 level was the first one. その後, the price of Bitcoin dropped significantly to the support zone around $45,000. This support zone held and resulted in a strong bounce toward $52,000.

だが, unfortunately for the bulls, this level wasn’t broken and instead saw a rejection, confirming further weakness across the market and more downside for BTC price.

This now paints a clear picture of the critical levels to watch. Ideally, the support zone between $42,500-$44,000 has to hold for further upward momentum. If it fails, further weakness can be expected toward the $37,500-$39,000 レベル.

But if the $42,500-44,000 support zone holds, higher prices can be expected once Bitcoin breaks above the resistance between $50,000 そして $51,000.

The bullish structure is still intact

BTC/USD 1-day chart. ソース: TradingView

While the lower timeframes indicate weakness for BTC/USD, the higher timeframes suggest a healthy correction. The market construction is still very bullish, as the chart above shows.

The previous top was at $42,000, after which the new support was established at $30,000. This last top was easily broken as Bitcoin’s price accelerated to the $58,000 高い. したがって、, a correction to even $37,000 could be classified as healthy and organic in this type of bull market.

簡単に言えば, as long as BTC holds above the $30,000 low of January 2021, the market can be classified as bullish.

March is often a corrective month

XBT/USD 1-week candle chart. ソース: Tradingview

History shows that March isn’t the most bullish month for the cryptocurrency market. In recent years, corrections have been seen in March. 具体的には, corrections of 15%-60% happened in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, そして 2020.

The latest crash was caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and could be classified as ablack swan.” それにもかかわらず, corrections tend to happen in March and this year could also see another pullback.

したがって、, corrections can last for several weeks and are frequently not completed in just one drop. したがって、, a correction toward the $35,000-$40,000 is still on the table.

XBT/USD 1-week chart. ソース: TradingView

The primary indicator to watch for this is the 21-Week MA. しばしば, corrections tend to move toward this line as a key point for a potential reversal. したがって、, in the coming weeks, this 21-Week MA could provide support in the correction.

現在, the 21-Week MA is around $28,000, though this should climb up in the coming weeks toward $33,000-35,000.

ここに記載されている見解や意見は、 著者 必ずしもコインテレグラフの見解を反映しているわけではありません. すべての投資と取引の動きにはリスクが伴います. 決定を下すときは、独自の調査を行う必要があります.

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ソース: コインテレグラフ

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