Bear’s misplaced belief that Bitcoin price would drop to $32,000 allowed Friday’s BTC options expiry to become unexpectedly balanced.
On June 4, の合計 15,530 ビットコイン (BTC) options are set to expire, これは $575 建玉の百万. 現時点では, bulls are still heavily impacted by May’s 37% BTC price correction, and this has led most call (購入) options to be underwater.
Despite the crash, Bitcoin’s active supply reached a five-month low as 45% of the coins have not been moved over the past 2 年. This indicator shows that investors who purchased up until the 2019 bull run are unwilling to sell at the current prices.
Miners are also avoiding sales below $40,000 as their outflows recently reached a seven-month low relative to the historical average.
その間, technical analysts pointed to the 50-week exponential moving average as a strong support level close to $34,000. それでも, the price chart has been forming a pattern of sideways trading that culminates in a narrowing wedge and breakout — known as “compression” — and indicating higher volatility towards the end of the week.
What is clear is that the market is a mixed bag right now, and everyone is grasping at various signals as an attempt to pinpoint the direction of the next trending move.
Bears could have dominated as markets tanked
While bears could have easily dominated Friday’s expiry, it seems they became overconfident by focusing primarily on sub-$32,000 put (売る) オプション.
The initial picture favors bears as the call-to-put ratio stands at 0.84, although this indicator values every option the same. しかしながら, the right to acquire Bitcoin at $46,000 未満で 42 hours is currently worthless, so this call option is trading below $20 各.
A similar effect is in place for the neutral-to-bearish put options at $28,000 and lower. Holders have no benefit in rolling it over for the upcoming weeks as these contracts also became worthless. したがって、, to better assess how traders are positioned for Friday’s options expiry, one needs to concentrate on the $32,000 に $42,000 範囲.
The neutral-to-bull call options up to $42,000 匹敵する 3,080 Bitcoin contracts, を表す $114 million open interest. 一方, put (売る) options down to $32,000 encompass 4,680 Bitcoin contracts, currently worth $173 百万.
As expected, インクルード $60 million difference favoring bears is not enough to cause any disturbance. This situation was caused by excessively bearish bets that did not pay off, potentially leading to the first balanced options expiry in three weeks.
Market makers are leaning bearish
ザ・ 25% デルタスキューは、信頼性が高く瞬時に提供されます “恐れと貪欲” 分析. このインジケーターは、同様の呼び出しを比較します (購入) そして、置きます (売る) options side by side and will turn positive when the neutral-to-bearish put options premium is higher than similar-risk call options. この状況は通常、 “恐れ” シナリオ, 堅実なラリーの後は頻繁ですが.
5月以降 17, the indicator flipped to the “恐れ” range and peaked multiple at 20% on numerous occasions, signaling a lack of interest to offer protective puts.
There is no doubt that bulls are frightened, but historically those are the best opportunities to buy the dip.
At least for the June 4 オプションの有効期限, bears no longer dominate the trade. フービ, OKEx and Deribit expiries take place on June 4 で 8:00 am UTC.
ここに記載されている見解や意見は著者のものであり、必ずしもコインテレグラフの見解を反映しているわけではありません。. すべての投資と取引の動きにはリスクが伴います. 決定を下すときは、独自の調査を行う必要があります.