After rallying more than 100% に 2021, ビットコイン (BTC) seems to be struggling to turn the $60,000 サポートへのレベル. 結局, what is so special about this magic round number and its accompanying $1 兆の時価総額?
Gold’s $11 trillion market cap might hold the answer, as Bitcoin’s current trading volume and the amount held by institutional investors seem to match 10% of the precious metal’s numbers.
Technical indicators and derivatives data provide interesting short-term insights. But to analyze cryptocurrencies in a broader context, one should focus on market capitalization, precious metals and global wealth.
More Bitcoins than in 2017
Keep in mind that the 18.67 million current BTC circulating supply is 11.2% more than existed in December 2017. したがって、, using unitary prices for longer-term comparisons can be misleading.
ザ・ $1.1 trillion valuation translates into a 250% increase from December 2017 peak market capitalization at $327 十億. So because of the additional issuing, that number differs from the 200% increase of the $20,000 nominal tag versus the current $60,000.
The rise of “デジタルゴールド”
Another essential metric, ゴールド, the precious metal, has always been a proxy for the leading cryptocurrency. Although Bitcoin has multiple use cases, store of value has always been its flagship feature while the debate behind its commodity-like features and currency persists.
関係なく, as the United States expanded its monetary base over the past twelve months by 53% to an astonishing $5.25 兆, the number of institutional investors seeking Bitcoin as a safe haven for inflation skyrocketed.
Legendary investors Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones both compared Bitcoin’s unique features with gold, triggering even more companies, 保険会社, and fund managers’ attention.
したがって、, the comparison with gold’s market capitalization became even more relevant.
According to the above data, BTC’s current $1 trillion market capitalization translates to roughly 10% 金の, 価値 $11 兆. To assess how those markets compare, one should compare their volume traded, ETF and ETN markets, in addition to institutional holdings.
その間, あります $183 billion daily liquidity for gold, including registered over-the-counter (OTC) トランザクション, in addition to regulated futures markets and gold exchange-traded products.
同時に, the daily volume for BTC is approximately $15.9 十億. Exchange-traded products such as Grayscale Bitcoin Fund (GBTC) add another $1.5 billion daily liquidity, による CryptoCompare. したがって、, ビットコインの $17.4 billion average daily volume can be compared to roughly 9.5% 金の.
Gold ETF vs. Bitcoin exchange-traded products
Bitcoin’s multiple exchange-traded products such as Grayscale $GBTC and exchange-traded notes have been growing considerably. がある $58.7 billion assets under management, or AUM, locked in crypto exchange-traded products, による CryptoCompare’s 行進 2021 報告する.
So with gold-backed ETF products amounting to $198.8 十億, ビットコインの $58.7 billion AUM represents 29.5% of this amount.
それにもかかわらず, a fair comparison needs to include physical holdings, the preferred instrument of governments and banks. その間, regulation for most fund managers requires BTC holdings to use exchange-listed products, causing the disparity.
例えば, central banks and the IMF hold 35,197 tonnes of gold, which translates to $1.96 兆. Gold.org estimates 44,384 tonnes are held by private investment, including ETF markets, and those are worth another $2.47 兆. All of this adds up to $4.41 trillion in gold held by institutional investors.
ビットコインで, addresses holding 100 に 10,000 BTC own 48.9% 供給の, に相当 $538 billion held by large investors.
Considering institutions’ gold holdings amount to $4.41 兆, BTC displays a 12.2% equivalent indicator, thus supporting its current $1 兆の時価総額.
Yassine Elmandjra, a crypto asset analyst at Ark Invest, believes Bitcoin has the potential to surpass gold’s $10-trillion market cap. As Bloomberg senior commodity strategist, Mike McGlone puts it:
“Bitcoin fills the digital reserve-asset need in a low-yield world.”
McGlone goes further, しかしながら, adding that “adoption of the benchmark crypto as a global reserve asset has crossed the mainstream threshold,” which could propel BTC price to as high as $400,000 に 2021.
So to sum up, Bitcoin’s average volume traded and large investors’ holdings roughly match 10% of gold’s markets. But while the $1 trillion market cap level may be a watershed moment for the next phase of Bitcoin adoption, BTC may remain pinned below $60,000 for quite some time, particularly as some analysts believe the price may only see a major surge toward the end of the year.
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