3 BTC가 아래에서 거래 될 가능성이없는 이유 $50,000 조만간

비트 코인 (BTC) is showing tenacity above $50,000 3 월 25. 그만큼 10% drop over the last 24 hours happened despite Tesla allowing customers to buy vehicles using BTC in addition to CEO Elon Musk affirming that it will not be converted to fiat currency.

3 월 22, the United States Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, stated that Bitcoin was too volatile, “backed by nothing,” and more of an asset for speculation. 흥미롭게, on that same day, BTC lost its $56,000 지원하다, which became a resistance.

Traders worry that the pump might have been news-driven, while the downtrend movement shall prevail. Although this is possible, derivatives indicators aren’t leaning bearish, and any decent correction will likely meet strong support at $50,000.

Bitcoin price 3-hour candle chart (코인베이스). 출처: TradingView

Part of the uncertainty investors might have derived from the record $6.1 billion options expiry on March 26. 그렇지만, 84% of the neutral-to-bearish put options are already deemed worthless as BTC price soared above $50,000.

게다가, CME holds $980 million futures contracts set to expire on the same day. Although buyers (longs) and sellers (shorts) are matched at all times, some traders worry that BTC prices could be pressured by futures traders looking to roll over their positions into April and May.

Unlike perpetual futures, those fixed-calendar CME contracts have a set expiry date. 그러므로, to maintain a long position, one must buy the April or May futures while simultaneously selling the March contract.

그러므로, to better assess whales and arbitrage desks influence on the market, one should closely monitor derivatives indicators.

The futures premium remains bullish

By measuring the expense gap between futures and the regular spot market, a trader can gauge the level of bullishness in the market.

The three-month futures usually trade with a 10% ...에 20% versus regular spot exchanges to justify locking the funds instead of immediately cashing out. 이 표시기가 사라지거나 음수로 바뀔 때마다, ~로 알려진 “backwardation, it indicates that the market is bearish.

OKEx 3-month BTC futures basis. 출처: 비스듬한

The above chart shows that the indicator recently bottomed at 17% 3 월 25 while BTC tested the $50,000 지원하다. This is extremely bullish as it signals leveraged buyers remained optimistic and unwilling to reduce their positions.

Whenever the basis reaches 35% 또는 더 높게, it indicates extreme buyers’ 이점, but that’s clearly not the case right now.

The options skew has been neutral since Jan. 19

옵션을 분석 할 때, 그만큼 25% delta skew is the single-most relevant gauge. This indicator compares similar call (구입) 그리고 넣어 (팔다) 옵션을 나란히. Some analysts point to the put-to-call ratio, but this metric fails to exclude worthless options such as a right to sell BTC at $45,000.

그러므로, delta skew offers a less polluted number and will turn negative when the put options premium is higher than similar risk call options. Such a positive skew translates to a higher cost of downside protection, indicating optimism.

The opposite holds when market makers are bearish, causing the 25% delta skew indicator to gain positive ground.

Deribit BTC options 25% 델타 스큐. 출처: laevitas.ch

Over the past five weeks, the skew indicator remained flat, indicating no optimism or pessimism from whales and option market makers. A skew indicator between negative 10 and positive 10 중립으로 간주됩니다, meaning a balanced risk assessment.

Retail traders are not behind the high futures’ 기초

As futures and options provide mixed sentiment, one should also monitor the perpetual futures funding rate. Such a fee is charged every eight hours to ensure derivatives exchanges hold no risk imbalances. Wherever it turns positive, it means buyers (longs) are the ones paying the carry cost due to larger leverage use.

BTC perpetual futures 8-hour funding rate. 출처: Bybt

The current 0.04% average is relatively neutral, 에 상응하는 0.8% 한 주에. Although longs are the ones facing such fees, it is far from being considered costly. Such data indicates that retail traders are not creating an arbitrage opportunity causing fixed-calendar futures to trade at a premium.

사무용 겉옷, derivatives indicators are healthy considering BTC is down 16% from the $61,800 3 월 사상 최고 13. Such data leaves room for further buying activity, so traders shouldn’t consider the current as anything out of the ordinary.

여기에 표현 된 견해와 의견은 전적으로 오토아르 자형 그리고 반드시 Cointelegraph의 견해를 반영하지는 않습니다.. 모든 투자 및 거래에는 위험이 수반됩니다. 결정을 내릴 때 스스로 조사해야합니다.

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출처: 코인 텔레그래프

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