Don’t fight the trendis an old saying in the markets, and there are other variants of the phrase likenever catch a falling knife.The bottom line is that traders should not try to anticipate trend reversals, 또는 더 나쁘다, try to improve their average price while losing money.

It really doesn’t matter whether one is trading soy futures, 은, stocks or cryptocurrencies. Markets generally move in cycles, which can last from a few days to a couple of years. In Bitcoin’s (BTC) 케이스, it’s hard for anyone to justify a bullish case by looking at the chart below.

Coinbase에서 USD로 표시된 Bitcoin 가격. 원천: 트레이딩뷰

과거에 25 일, every attempt to break the descending channel has been abruptly interrupted. 흥미롭게, the trend points to sub-$40,000 by mid-October, which happens to be the deadline for the United States Securities and Exchange Commission decision on the ProShares Bitcoin ETF (10월. 18) and Invesco Bitcoin ETF (10월. 19).

According to the CoinShares weekly report, the recent price action triggered institutional investors to enter the sixth consecutive week of inflows. There has been nearly $100 million worth of inflows between Sept. 20 과 24.

Experienced traders claim that Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $43,600 support for the bullish trend to resume. 그 동안에, on-chain data points to heavy accumulation, as the falling exchange supply has been dominant.

Perpetual futures show traders neutral to bearish

To gauge investor sentiment, one should analyze the funding rate on perpetual contracts because these are retail traderspreferred instruments. 월간 계약과 달리, perpetual futures (역 스왑) 일반 현물 거래소와 매우 유사한 가격으로 거래.

펀딩 비율은 매수부터 8 시간마다 자동으로 청구됩니다. (구매자) 더 많은 레버리지를 요구할 때. 하나, 상황이 역전 될 때, 반바지 (판매자) 과다 레버리지, the funding rate turns negative, and they become the ones paying the fee.

Bitcoin perpetual futures 8-hour funding rate. 원천:

A ‘neutralsituation involves leverage longs paying a small fee, oscillating from 0% ...에 0.03% per eight-hour period, 이는 0.6% 한 주에. 아직, the above chart shows a slightly bearish trend since Sept. 13, when the funding rate was last seen above the 0.03% 문지방.

The put-to-call ratio favors bulls, but the trend has changed

선물 계약과 달리, 옵션은 두 부분으로 나뉩니다. 요구 (구입) options allow the buyer to acquire Bitcoin at a fixed price on the expiry date. 일반적으로 말하면, 이들은 중립적 차익 거래 또는 강세 전략에 사용됩니다..

그 동안에, 넣어 (팔다) options are commonly used as protection from negative price swings.

이러한 경쟁적인 힘의 균형을 이해하려면, one should compare the calls and put options open interest.

Bitcoin options open interest put-to-call ratio. 원천:

The indicator reached a 0.47 bottom on Aug. 29, reflecting the 50,000 BTC protective puts stacked against the 104k BTC call (구입) 옵션. 아직도, the gap has been decreasing as the use of neutral-to-bearish put contracts started to get traction after the Sept. 24 monthly expiry.

According to Bitcoin futures and options markets, it might seem premature to call a ‘bearishperiod, but the last two weeks show absolutely no signs of bullishness from derivatives indicators. It appears that bullshope clings on to the ETF deadline acting as a trigger to break the current market structure.

여기에 표현 된 견해와 의견은 전적으로 저자 그리고 반드시 Cointelegraph의 견해를 반영하지는 않습니다.. 모든 투자 및 거래에는 위험이 수반됩니다. 결정을 내릴 때 스스로 조사해야합니다.