비트코인 (BTC) has been trading in a descending pattern since the strong $53,000 rejection that occurred on Sept. 7, 그리고 $3.4 billion futures contracts liquidation along with China’s ban on crypto trading appear to have severely impacted tradersmorale.

Adding to the negative sentiment, major crypto exchanges like Binance and Huobi halted some services in mainland China, and some of the largest Ethereum mining pools, like Sparkpool and BeePool were forced to shut down completely.

Coinbase에서 USD로 표시된 Bitcoin 가격. 원천: 트레이딩뷰

Based on the above chart, it is possible to understand why buyers placed 80% of their bets at $44,000 또는 더 높게. 하나, the past two weeks definitively caused those call (구입) options to lose value quickly.

9 월. 25, 중국인민은행 (PBoC) posted a nationwide ban on crypto and barred companies from providing financial transactions and services to market participants. The news triggered an 8% dip in Bitcoin’s price along with a broader pullback on altcoins.

The bearish sentiment was confirmed after Tesla CEO Elon Musk expressed his support for cryptocurrency at the Code Conference in California.

Musk said:

It is not possible to, 나는 생각한다, destroy crypto, but it is possible for governments to slow down its advancement.

Had we been in a neutral-to-bullish market, those remarks would likely have reversed the negative trend. 예를 들면, 칠월 21, Elon Musk said that Bitcoin had already hit his benchmark on renewable energy. 결과적으로, Bitcoin 가격, which had previously dropped 12% in ten days, reverted the move and hiked 35% over the next ten days.

The Oct. 1 expiry will be a strength test for bulls because any price below $42,000 means a bloodbath with absolute dominance of put (팔다) 옵션.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Oct. 1. 원천: Bybt.com

처음에, 그만큼 $285 million neutral-to-bullish instruments dominated the weekly expiry by 21% 에 비해 $320 million puts (팔다) 옵션.

하나, 그만큼 1.21 call-to-put ratio is deceiving because the excessive optimism seen from bulls could wipe out most of their bets if Bitcoin price remains below $43,000 ...에서 8:00 am UTC on Friday.

아무튼, 비트코인을 취득할 수 있는 권리가 무슨 소용이 있습니까? $50,000 그 가격 이하로 거래된다면?

Bears were also caught by surprise

Sixty-six percent of the put options, where the buyer holds a right to sell Bitcoin at a pre-established price, has been placed at $42,000 또는 더 낮은. These neutral-to-bearish instruments will become worthless if Bitcoin trades above that price on Friday morning.

다음은 현재 가격 수준을 고려할 가능성이 가장 높은 4가지 시나리오입니다.. 어느 한쪽에 유리한 불균형은 만료로 인한 잠재적 이익을 나타냅니다..

The data shows how many contracts will be available on Friday, 만료 가격에 따라.

  • 중에서 $40,000 과 $41,000: 110 통화 대. 4,470 넣다. 최종 결과는 $175 보호 풋을 선호하는 백만 (곰) 악기.
  • 중에서 $41,000 과 $43,000: 640 통화 대. 4,000 넣다. The net result continues to favor bears by $140 백만.
  • 중에서 $43,000 과 $45,000: 1,780 통화 대. 2,070 넣다. 순 결과는 곰과 황소 사이에서 균형을 이룹니다..
  • 위에 $45,000: 2,530 통화 대. 1,090 넣다. The net result shifts in favor of bulls by $65 백만.

이 조잡한 추정치는 통화를 고려합니다. (구입) options used in bullish strategies and put (팔다) options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. 운수 나쁘게, real life is not that simple because it’s possible that more complex investment strategies are being deployed.

예를 들면, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining a positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price. 따라서, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect, so the simple analysis above is a good guess.

As things currently stand, bears have absolute control of the Oct. 1 expiry and they have a few good reasons to keep pressuring the price below $43,000.

Unless some unexpected buying pressure comes out over the next 12 시간, the amount of capital required for bulls to force the market above the $45,000 threshold seems immense and unjustified.

반면에, bears need a 5% negative price swing that takes BTC below $41,000 to increase their lead by $35 백만. So this move also shows little return for the amount of effort required.

The bull’s only hope resides in some surprise positive newsflow for Bitcoin price ahead of Oct. 1 ...에서 8:00 오전 UTC. If any sensible action is bound to occur, it will likely take place during the weekend, when there’s less active flow.

여기에 표현 된 견해와 의견은 전적으로 저자 그리고 반드시 Cointelegraph의 견해를 반영하지는 않습니다.. 모든 투자 및 거래에는 위험이 수반됩니다. 결정을 내릴 때 스스로 조사해야합니다.