BTC 12 월 선물 도달 $73,500 — 모두가 매우 낙관적입니까??

비트 코인 (BTC) has been struggling to break the $60,000 resistance for almost a month. But despite the impasse, BTC futures markets have never been so bullish. While regular spot exchanges are trading near $59,600, the BTC contracts maturing in June are trading above $65,000.

Futures contracts tend to trade at a premium, mainly on neutral-to-bullish markets, and this happens on every asset, including commodities, 주식, 색인, and currencies. 하나, ㅏ 50% 연간 보험료 (기초) for contracts expiring in three months is highly uncommon.

BTC futures curve, in USD. 출처: bitcoinfuturesinfo.com

Unlike the perpetual contract — or inverse swap, these fixed-calendar futures do not have a funding rate. 그러므로, their price will vastly differ from regular spot exchanges. Fixed-calendar futures eliminates eventual funding ratesspikes from the buyers’ 원근법, which can reach up to 43% 달마다.

반면에, the seller benefits from a predictable premium, usually locking longer-term arbitrage strategies. By simultaneously buying the spot (regular) BTC and selling the futures contracts, one gains a zero-risk exposure with a predetermined gain. 그러므로, the futures contracts seller demands higher profits (프리미엄) whenever markets lean bullish.

The three-month futures usually trade with a 10% ...에 20% versus regular spot exchanges to justify locking the funds instead of immediately cashing out.

OKEx BTC 3-month futures annualized premium (기초). 출처: Skew.com

The above chart shows that even during the 250% rally between March and June 2019, the futuresbasis held below 25%. It was only recently in February 2021 that such phenomena reemerged. Bitcoin surged by 135% 에 60 days before the 3-month futures premium surpassed the 25% annualized level on Feb. 8, 2021.

While professional traders tend to prefer the fixed-month calendar futures, retail dominates perpetual contracts, avoiding the expirieshassle. 게다가, retail traders consider it expensive to pay 10% or larger nominal premiums, even though perpetual contracts (inverse swaps) are more costly when considering the funding rate.

BTC coin-based perpetual futures funding rate. 출처: Bybt.com

최근 동안 0.20% funding rate per 8-hour is extraordinary, it is definitely not unusual for BTC markets. Such a fee is equivalent to 19.7% per month but seldom lasts more than a couple of days.

A high funding rate causes arbitrage desks to intervene, buying fixed-calendar contracts and selling the perpetual futures. 그러므로, excessive retail long leverage usually drives the futuresbasis up, not the other way around.

As crypto-derivatives markets remain largely unregulated, inefficiencies shall continue to prevail. 그러므로, 동안 50% basis premium seems out of the norm, one must remember that retail traders have no other means to leverage their positions. 차례로, this causes temporary distortions, although not necessarily worrisome from a trading perspective.

While exorbitant funding rate fees remain, leverage longs will be forced to close their positions due to its growing cost. 그러므로, December’s $73,500 contract does not necessarily reflect investorsexpectations, and such a premium should recede.

여기에 표현 된 견해와 의견은 전적으로 저자 그리고 반드시 Cointelegraph의 견해를 반영하지는 않습니다.. 모든 투자 및 거래에는 위험이 수반됩니다. 결정을 내릴 때 스스로 조사해야합니다.

광고를 차단하자! (왜?)

출처: 코인 텔레그래프

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