The supply shock valuation model delivers an extra reason to be long-term bullish on upward price movement.
비트코인 (BTC) should cost at least $55,000 per coin according to one metric measuring its so-called “supply shock.”
In a tweet on Sep. 5, analyst Willy Woo highlighted what he added is a “conservative” price estimate for BTC/USD.
Bitcoin price plays catch-up with metrics
While Bitcoin has still not established $50,000 as firm support, on-chain metrics have been much more firmly bullish for some time.
지금, the so-called “supply shock valuation model” has joined them, giving a conservative price estimate of $55,000.
Supply shock is simply the unavailable BTC supply divided by the available BTC supply. This goes deeper than at first glance, as Woo uses it to effectively “wave a magic wand and gauge the intent of investors before the bids and offers are even placed.”
“In this view of demand and supply, an investor who has no intention to sell is on the demand side while an investor who is willing to sell is on the supply side,” he explained in a blog post last month.
The valuation model additionally uses an algorithm to compare similar supply and demand situations to now, thus producing a fair price estimate.
“It’s conservative as one of the SS metrics, exchange SS, is now above all-time-high so no look-back is possible,” Woo acknowledged in the tweet, referring to the ratio of coins in cold storage compared to on exchanges being at record levels.
The accompanying chart captures when BTC price moved with and without any shifts in investor intent.
$50,000 first hurdle for bulls
Bitcoin supply shock is an oft-used phrase in the current market thanks to 2021 being the year after a block subsidy halving event.
관련된: More like ‘shock-to-flow’ — BTC price hits bull trigger as mystery buyers scoop up supply
With miners now unlocking just 6.25 BTC per block, 지금까지, Bitcoin has behaved broadly similarly to previous post-halving years — 2013 과 2017.
The conservative $55,000 minimum target nonetheless remains above another set of monthly close minimums from analyst PlanB, who guesses that September will have a minimum monthly close of $43,000.
그후에, 하나, upside resumes in earnest, with Bitcoin closing out 2021 on at least $135,000.
글을 쓰는 시점, BTC/USD traded at $50,200, having stayed in a tight range throughout the weekend.
애드블록 테스트 (왜?)