Margin trading allows investors to borrow stablecoins or cryptocurrency to leverage their position and improve the expected return. 예를 들면, borrowing Tether (USDT) will allow one to buy Bitcoin (BTC), thus increasing their Bitcoin long position.

Investors can also borrow BTC to margin trade a short position, thus betting on price downside. This is why some analysts monitor the total lending amounts of Bitcoin and Tether to gain insight into whether investors are leaning bullish or bearish.

Are analysts flipping bearish based only on Bitfinex’s margin data?

이번 주, some prominent analysts cited a surge in Bitcoin short positions on Bitfinex, 정점에 6,621 BTC on June 7. Cointelegraph가보고 한대로, independent researcher Fomocap found a visible correlation between margined short positions and the May 19 price crash.

하나, when analyzing a broader scope of data — including the margin longs, perpetual contracts funding rate and protective put options — there is no evidence of prominent players preparing for a surprise negative move.

A single instance of Bitcoin margin shorts spiking ahead of the negative price swing should not be considered a leading indicator. 더욱이, one needs to factor in Bitcoin margin longs — an opposing, usually larger force.

Bitfinex margin Bitcoin/USD longs/shorts ratio. 출처: TradingView

As the above chart indicates, even on May 17 the number of BTC/USD long margin contracts outpaced shorts by 3.6, ...에서 39,000 BTC. 사실로, the last time this indicator dropped below 2.0, favoring longs, was on Nov. 26, 2020. The result was not good for the shorts, as Bitcoin rallied 64% over the following 30 일.

OKEx USDT/BTC lending ratio. 출처: OKEx

Whenever traders borrow Tether and stablecoins, they are likely long on cryptocurrencies. 반면에, BTC borrowing is mainly used for short positions.

이론적으로, whenever the USDT/BTC lending ratio goes up, the market is angled in a bullish manner. The ratio at OKEx bottomed at 3.5 오월에 20, favoring longs, but it quickly returned to the 5.5 수평. 따라서, there is no evidence of a significant movement favoring shorts on margin markets.

The perpetual futures funding rate is still flat

Perpetual futures prices trade very close to regular spot exchanges, making the lives of retail traders a lot easier because they no longer need to calculate the futures premium.

This magic can only be achieved by the funding rate charged from longs (구매자) 더 많은 레버리지를 요구할 때. 하나, when the situation is reversed and shorts (판매자) 과다 레버리지, the funding rate goes negative, and they become the ones paying the fee.

Bitcoin perpetual futures 8-hour funding rate. 출처: Bybt

위에 표시된대로, the funding rate has been mostly flat since May 19. Had there been a massive surge for shorting demand, the indicator would have reflected the move.

The options put-to-call ratio remains bullish

호출 (구입) 옵션은 구매자에게 가격 상승 보호를 제공합니다., 그리고 넣어 (팔다) 반대로한다. 즉, 중립에서 약세 전략을 목표로하는 트레이더는 일반적으로 풋 옵션에 의존합니다.. 반면에, 콜 옵션은 강세 포지션에 더 일반적으로 사용됩니다..

Aggregate Bitcoin put-to-call options ratio. 출처: CryptoRank

Take notice of how the neutral-to-bullish call options outnumber the protective puts by nearly 90%. Had professional traders and whales been anticipating a market crash, this ratio would have been positively impacted.

Investors should not make trading decisions based on a single indicator, as the remaining markets and exchanges may not corroborate it. 지금은, there is absolutely no indication that heavy players are betting on Bitcoin short positions.

여기에 표현 된 견해와 의견은 전적으로 저자 그리고 반드시 Cointelegraph의 견해를 반영하지는 않습니다.. 모든 투자 및 거래에는 위험이 수반됩니다. 결정을 내릴 때 스스로 조사해야합니다.