Ether Looks Overleveraged as Cryptocurrency Hits New High Over $1,900

Ether soared to new record highs Thursday, but an overheated derivatives market may suggest higher volatility is on the way for the short term.

The second-largest cryptocurrency by market value set the new lifetime high of $1,928 soon before press time, having first breached the previous peak of $1,821.49 reached on Feb. 13 early today, CoinDesk에 따르면 20 데이터.

In the derivatives market, the average level of the “funding rate” across major exchanges offering ether perpetuals (futures with no expiry) has risen sharply from 0.069% – just short of the early January record high of 0.21%, according to data source Glassnode.

“It shows the derivatives market is overleveraged,” Patrick Heusser, head of trading at Swiss-based Crypto Finance AG, CoinDesk에 말했다. “With this current structure, I do not feel comfortable in running a lot of long exposure.”

The funding rate is calculated every eight hours and represents the cost of holding long positions. When perpetuals trade at a premium to spot price, the funding rate is positive (longs pay shorts). 그 후, a very high funding rate is considered a sign of leverage being excessively skewed to the bullish side (overbought conditions) and often injects volatility into the market.

에테르: Average funding rate
출처: 비스듬한

In such situations, holding longs at high costs is attractive only if the bullish momentum remains strong. A pullback or consolidation can trigger an unwinding of longs, leading to a more profound price drop and a pick-up in price volatility. 보도 시간 기준, ether is showing no signs of price congestion.

하나, the case for a continued steep rally looks weak, with spot market volumes falling on major exchanges such as Coinbase.

Ether daily chart
출처: TradingView

With the 10-day moving average of daily volume trending south, there’s a question mark on the sustainability of recent gains. A low-volume price rise is often short-lived.

그 말, a pullback, 만약에 어떠한, could be shallow and brief, as on-chain fundamentals are biased bullish.

The number of coins held on exchanges has declined by 10% ...에 20.77 million in the past three months, according to data source CryptoQuant. It shows investors are either taking direct custody of coins or staking them into decentralized finance protocols, creating a sell-side liquidity shortage.

Ether exchange reserves (number of balances held in exchange addresses)
출처: CryptoQuant

“In the long-run, [그만큼] ETH rally would keep going as long as ETH holdings in all exchanges are decreasing,” Ki-Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, CoinDesk에 말했다.

Other metrics also paint a bullish picture. 예를 들어, the 90-day average of active addresses on Ethereum’s network has increased to a new lifetime high of around 450,000, surpassing the 2017 피크, Glassnode에 따르면.

이더 리움: 90-day average of active addresses
출처: Glassnode

“When there’s greater usage, there’s more demand for the cryptocurrency, and that drives the price up,” Philip Gradwell, chief economist at the blockchain intelligence firm Chainalysis, CoinDesk에 말했다.

Also read: Ethereum이 가장 좋아하는 무손실 복권은 오늘 POOL 토큰을 에어 드랍합니다


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