Traders are long on Ether, but derivatives data suggests that a $4,000 price tag is a long shot in the short term.
For the past 40 일, 에테르 (ETH) has trended modestly upward, respecting a narrow channel most of the time. It enjoyed a brief rally toward $4,000 in the first week of September, but a subsequent crash brought the price into the ascending channel.
8 월, nonfungible tokens posted record-breaking transactions, clogging the Ethereum network and causing average transaction fees to surpass $40 9 월 초. Although NFT trading volume has continued to subside, new items continue to be minted every minute regardless of whether they’re being traded.
On Sept.13, Cathie Wood — CEO of Ark Invest, ㅏ $58 billion asset manager based in the United States — commented that Ark aims for a 60% 비트코인 (BTC) 과 40% Ether allocation. Ark Invest holds relevant positions in Coinbase (동전) and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) 주식. 더욱이, Wood has been a long-time Bitcoin advocate.
Ether investors might have gotten lucky as one of the coin’s largest rivals, 솔라 나 (솔), faced a seven-hour blackout on Sept. 14. A sudden surge in transaction volume flooded the transaction processing queue, which brought the network down.
Another incident happened on that same day after the Ethereum layer-two rollup network Arbitrum One went offline for 45 의사록. The team attributed the downtime to a massive batch of transactions submitted to the Arbitrum sequencer over a short period.
These events point toward the importance of the ETH 2.0 업그레이드, which will bring parallel processing and drastically reduce transaction fees. 흥미롭게, Ethereum also faced a large invalid block sequence from a malicious entity. 하나, the vast majority of network clients rejected the attack, making it unsuccessful.
위와 같이, bears got caught by surprise, 과 95% of put (팔다) instruments were placed at $3,500 또는 더 낮은. 따라서, if ETH remains above that price on Sept. 17, 뿐 $8 million worth of neutral-to-bearish put options will be activated on the expiry.
풋옵션은 정해진 만기일에 비트코인을 미리 정해진 가격에 팔 수 있는 권리입니다.. 그러므로, ㅏ $3,000 put option becomes worthless if ETH remains above that price at 8:00 9월 UTC 오전. 17.
The call-to-put ratio reflects a balanced situation
그만큼 0.95 call-to-put ratio represents the small difference between the $173 million worth of call (구입) options versus the $181 백만 풋 (팔다) 옵션. This bird’s eye view needs a more detailed analysis that considers that some of the bets are far-fetched considering the current $3,500 수평.
예를 들면, if Ether’s expiry price on Sept. 17 이다 $3,300, every call option above that price becomes worthless. There will be no value for a right to acquire ETH at $3,700 in that case.
Below are the four most likely scenarios considering the current Ether price. The imbalance favoring either side represents the theoretical profit from the expiry. The data below shows how many contracts will be activated on Friday, 만료 가격에 따라:
- 중에서 $3,100 과 $3,300: 2,100 통화 대. 20,300 넣다. 최종 결과는 $58 보호 풋을 선호하는 백만 (곰) 악기.
- 중에서 $3,300 과 $3,500: 순 결과는 곰과 황소 사이에서 균형을 이룹니다..
- 중에서 $3,500 과 $3,700: 17,600 통화 대. 2,300 넣다. 최종 결과는 $55 통화를 선호하는 백만 (황소) 옵션.
- 위에 $3,700: 17,600 통화 대. 2,300 넣다. The net result favors the call options by $85 백만.
This raw estimate considers call options being exclusively used in bullish strategies and put options in neutral-to-bearish trades. 하나, investors might have used more complex strategies that typically involve different expiry dates.
Minimal volatility is expected for this week
Buyers and sellers will face small gains from a moving Ether price to boost their returns on the weekly options expiry. Whether or not it achieves $3,500 will be interesting — things could go either way.
사물을 원근감있게, the ETH monthly options expiry on Sept. 24 currently holds a $1.6 billion open interest. 그러므로, both sides are likely concentrating efforts for the next week.
여기에 표현 된 견해와 의견은 전적으로 저자 그리고 반드시 Cointelegraph의 견해를 반영하지는 않습니다.. 모든 투자 및 거래에는 위험이 수반됩니다. 결정을 내릴 때 스스로 조사해야합니다.
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