Bear’s misplaced belief that Bitcoin price would drop to $32,000 allowed Friday’s BTC options expiry to become unexpectedly balanced.
6 월 4, 총 15,530 비트 코인 (BTC) options are set to expire, 나타내는 $575 미결제 백만 달러. 현재, bulls are still heavily impacted by May’s 37% BTC price correction, and this has led most call (구입) options to be underwater.
Despite the crash, Bitcoin’s active supply reached a five-month low as 45% of the coins have not been moved over the past 2 연령. This indicator shows that investors who purchased up until the 2019 bull run are unwilling to sell at the current prices.
Miners are also avoiding sales below $40,000 as their outflows recently reached a seven-month low relative to the historical average.
그동안, technical analysts pointed to the 50-week exponential moving average as a strong support level close to $34,000. 아직도, the price chart has been forming a pattern of sideways trading that culminates in a narrowing wedge and breakout — known as “compression” — and indicating higher volatility towards the end of the week.
What is clear is that the market is a mixed bag right now, and everyone is grasping at various signals as an attempt to pinpoint the direction of the next trending move.
Bears could have dominated as markets tanked
While bears could have easily dominated Friday’s expiry, it seems they became overconfident by focusing primarily on sub-$32,000 put (팔다) 옵션.
The initial picture favors bears as the call-to-put ratio stands at 0.84, although this indicator values every option the same. 하나, the right to acquire Bitcoin at $46,000 미만 42 hours is currently worthless, so this call option is trading below $20 마다.
A similar effect is in place for the neutral-to-bearish put options at $28,000 and lower. Holders have no benefit in rolling it over for the upcoming weeks as these contracts also became worthless. 따라서, to better assess how traders are positioned for Friday’s options expiry, one needs to concentrate on the $32,000 ...에 $42,000 범위.
The neutral-to-bull call options up to $42,000 금액 3,080 Bitcoin contracts, representing a $114 million open interest. 반면에, 놓다 (팔다) options down to $32,000 encompass 4,680 Bitcoin contracts, 현재 가치 $173 백만.
예상대로, 그만큼 $60 million difference favoring bears is not enough to cause any disturbance. This situation was caused by excessively bearish bets that did not pay off, potentially leading to the first balanced options expiry in three weeks.
Market makers are leaning bearish
그만큼 25% delta skew provides a reliable and instant “두려움과 탐욕” analysis. This indicator compares similar call (구입) 그리고 넣어 (팔다) options side by side and will turn positive when the neutral-to-bearish put options premium is higher than similar-risk call options. 이 상황은 일반적으로 “무서움” 대본, although frequent after solid rallies.
반면에, 마이너스 스큐는 상승 보호 비용이 증가하고 강세를 나타냅니다..
Since May 17, the indicator flipped to the “무서움” range and peaked multiple at 20% on numerous occasions, signaling a lack of interest to offer protective puts.
There is no doubt that bulls are frightened, but historically those are the best opportunities to buy the dip.
At least for the June 4 옵션 만료, bears no longer dominate the trade. 후 오비, OKEx and Deribit expiries take place on June 4 ...에서 8:00 am UTC.
여기에 표현 된 견해와 의견은 전적으로 저자의 견해이며 반드시 Cointelegraph의 견해를 반영하는 것은 아닙니다.. 모든 투자 및 거래에는 위험이 수반됩니다. 결정을 내릴 때 스스로 조사해야합니다.
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