비트 코인 (BTC) investors are known for being bullish, and even during 50% corrections like the current one, most analysts remain optimistic. One reason for investorsendless optimism and belief in infinite upside could be BTC’s decreasing issuance and the 21 million coins fixed supply limit.

하나, not even the most accurate models, including the stock-to-flow (S2F) from analyst Plan B, can predict bear markets, crashes, or FOMO-induced (fear of missing out) pumps. Traders usually misinterpret these concepts as value and price expectations can be easily mistaken.

Bitcoin does not exist in a vacuum, even if BTC maximalists think so. 따라서, its price action heavily depends on how many dollars, 유로, and yuans are in circulation and interest rates, 부동산, 주식, 및 상품. Even global economic growth and inflationary expectations impact the risk appetite for people, 회사, 및 뮤추얼 펀드.

Bitcoin’s current price drivers

Regardless of what these valuation models predict, price is exclusively composed by the market participants at any given moment. Opposite to what one might expect, data from CryptoQuant shows only 2.5 million Bitcoin currently deposited on exchanges. Compare this to the 10.7 million that hasn’t been moved in the last 12 months according to ‘HODL wave’ 데이터, and we can say that long-term holders have no say in the price.

As the difference between value (subjective) 및 가격 (historical and objective) becomes more evident, it is easier to understand why some investors expect $100,000 or higher targets for the end of 2021. 하나, to correctly interpret what odds are being placed for those prices, one needs to analyze the calls (구입) existing in the options markets.

Bitcoin aggregate call options for Dec. 31. 출처: Bybt

Although the call (구입) options vastly dominate compared to the protective puts, this is common for almost every asset class on longer-term expiries. 하나, a call option with a $50,000 strike should be more representative than a $200,000 one because their prices will be noticeably different.

Bitcoin Dec. 31 call options market snapshot. 출처: Derib

글을 쓰는 시점, a right to acquire (콜옵션) Bitcoin for $50,000 12 월. 31 가치가있다 $4,350. 그 동안에, the same instrument using a $200,000 strike price costs $415, which is roughly ten times lower.

Cointelegraph previously explained how $100,000 ...에 $300,000 strikes should not be taken as precise analysis-backed price estimates. Investors typically sell higher-strike calls while simultaneously buying the more costly call option with a lower strike.

간단히 말해서, assuming that investors are exclusively buying the ultra-bullish call options is naive and usually wrong. 하나, even the option strategies involving selling those options are generally neutral-to-bullish.

$100,000 is still in play according to options markets

According to the Black & Scholes model, 현재 $1,185 price for the $100,000 call option has a 13% mathematical probability. It is worth noting that this methodology considers the price exclusively on Dec. 31 ...에서 8:00 am ET and does not count the $99,999 price as a success.

그럼에도 불구하고, there is strong evidence that professional traders are still valuing the year-end $100,000 옵션. It might seem far-fetched right now, but Bitcoin’s volatility opens room for surprise, especially considering that there’s still half a year ahead.

여기에 표현 된 견해와 의견은 전적으로 저자 그리고 반드시 Cointelegraph의 견해를 반영하지는 않습니다.. 모든 투자 및 거래에는 위험이 수반됩니다. 결정을 내릴 때 스스로 조사해야합니다.