소매 상인은 '앉아있는 오리’ 매각으로 14 억 달러의 청산이 시작됨

After flirting with a $2 trillion market capitalization for the last couple of days, the cryptocurrency market took a 7% hit on April 7, dropping the total crypto market cap to $1.8 일조. As the unexpected sell-off took place, investors scrambled to find a reason to explain the move.

Analysts typically identify the use of excessive leverage as the prime suspect, as this usually occurs as the market reaches an all-time high and traders get greedy, but this is an easy conclusion to reach.

The actual cause could be near impossible to determine. 아직도, a starting place is looking at how high buyersleverage was compared with the previous weeks. Analysts must also question whether a $1 billion liquidation is even significant in the current bullish environment.

Leverage amplifies price movements on both sides

Total cryptocurrency market capitalization. 출처: TradingView

The negative price swing on April 7 resembles the rally that took place two days earlier. 하나, retail traders deploy leverage by using perpetual futures contracts (inverse swaps), which can amplify price corrections.

ㅏ 5% move is enough to liquidate traders using 20x leverage, and exchange order books tend to become thin below that level, as traders seldomly have orders in place.

있습니다)USDT order book. 출처: 바이 낸스

위와 같이, there is $4.6 million worth of bids down to $1.15 for Cardano’s ADA in the above example. Behind the 5% 문지방, there’s only $1.9 million down to $1.06, 또는 12% below last trade.

Thin order books are a gold mine for scalpers and arbitrage desks. Once retail markets enter highly leveraged positions, there are multiple incentives to push down the price and trigger liquidations.

Aggregate liquidations. 출처: Bybt

Today’s 12-hour, $1.4 billion liquidation might seem excessive, but this aggregates the entire futures markets. 게다가, this represents a mere 3% of the total $46 billion in open interest. Had this movement taken place some six months ago, the figure would have been north of 12%.

하나, implying that liquidations triggered the drop is not the best answer, as those are only triggered when markets drop 4% 이상. Although analysts may never fully understand what has triggered the correction, ㅏ “buy the rumor, sell the newsevent could have taken place after Coinbase presented its quarterly earnings.

The funding rate is high but not abnormal

It’s also important to review how high the funding rate was and, more importantly, for how long. Even if the eight-hour fee reaches 0.20%, 에 상응하는 4.3% 한 주에, this will not force longs to close positions.

BTC perpetual futures 8-hour funding rate. 출처: Coinalyze

위와 같이, the average funding rate across top exchanges did not rise above 0.10%, which is substantially lower than the late February levels.

It is natural during rallies for long traders to enter excessively leveraged positions, and this situation can last from a couple of hours to weeks.

Sometimes retail traders turn into sitting ducks

Whales and market makers likely knew that the exchange order books were thin and that retail traders were excessively leveraged. 그러므로, one cannot discard today’s price action being a premeditated maneuver.

하나, arbitrage between exchanges and futures markets happens almost instantly, so no trail is left. Analysts and pundits might pinpoint numerous reasons for today’s move, but the available data suggests that leverage itself isn’t to blame.

여기에 표현 된 견해와 의견은 전적으로 저자 그리고 반드시 Cointelegraph의 견해를 반영하지는 않습니다.. 모든 투자 및 거래에는 위험이 수반됩니다. 결정을 내릴 때 스스로 조사해야합니다.

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출처: 코인 텔레그래프

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