In stock markets and the crypto sector, traders are always looking for a definite reason to explain an asset’s price action, which means it’s important to stress that correlation doesn’t imply causation.

While it may be easy to connect a regulatory statement or pending legislation to the outcome of an asset’s price, there’s not always hard proof that these were the exact drivers. Some indicators described below may have happened due to pure luck, even if the coincidence continues throughout history.

예를 들면, 비트 코인 (BTC) pump to $48,200 10 월. 1 could have been related to the Sept. 30 remarks by the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell. When asked to clarify his comments on Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC), Powell affirmed that the FED has no intentions to ban cryptocurrencies.

Another plausible reason for the current rally is Bitcoin’s 7-day average hash rate jumping to 145 초당 exahashes (EH/초), its highest level since the abrupt crash in early June when China’s mining crackdown intensified.

드디어, increasing expectations of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval by the U.S. 증권 거래위원회 (비서) might have played an essential part in tradersrecent bullish bets.

What is clear is that multiple factors could have led last week’s pump to $49,000, and today bulls appear to be making an effort to recapture $50,000. So let’s take a look at 3 indicators that flashed a ‘buysignal ahead of the recent price move.

UNI caught a bid after traders turned their attention to DeFi

Uniswap (UNI, 왼쪽) vs. 비트코인 (BTC, 권리). 원천: 트레이딩뷰

UNI, the decentralized exchange token for Uniswap, pumped a few hours ahead of the Oct. 1 market rally. The altcoin began its price increase right as the UTC monthly close happened, initially by 5% ...에 $24.20 ...에서 $23. This move was followed by another 4% pump to $25.20 three hours ahead of Bitcoin’s breakout above $45,000.

흥미롭게, DEX volumes started to soar after China imposed additional restrictions on Bitcoin in the previous week. A reasonable explanation for the move could be investors beginning to understand that China’s action would not impact the trading volume. By migrating to DEX, the possibility for governments to control or limit cryptocurrency adoption goes down significantly.

Shorts on derivatives exchanges saw an uptick

Some exchanges provide useful information on clientsnet exposure by measuring their positions or consolidating data from spot and derivatives markets. 예를 들면, the OKEx Bitcoin traderslong-to-short ratio dropped from 1.25 (favoring longs) ...에 0.72 (favoring shorts) 으로 28% 2 일 이내에.

That might sound counterintuitive at first, showing whales increasing bearish bets, but when market expectations are broken, extreme price moves tend to happen. Had most traders expected a positive price swing, the result would likely have been priced in already.

OKEx Bitcoin derivatives long-to-short ratio. 원천: OKEx

Binance futures open interest grew suddenly

Regardless of the underlying asset, a futures contract has longs (구매자) 반바지 (판매자) matched at all times. This means there is no way to anticipate whether those investors are skewed to either side.

하나, sudden increases in the open interest, which reflects the aggregate number of contracts still in play, reflects confidence. The higher the notional involved, the bigger the stakes.

Binance Bitcoin futures open interest. 원천: 바이 낸스

Notice how, 시 4 hours ahead of the 6:00 am UTC bull run, the spike on both the USDT perpetual and the coin-based contract open interest. 재미있게, even with the $400 million additional bets, Bitcoin price was only noticeably impacted after the open interest peaked.

The truth is one might never uncover what exactly triggered the rally, but by monitoring similar patterns in the future, traders may be able to predict price pumps. 물론이야, there’s no guarantee that all three indicators will repeat themselves, but the cost of monitoring the data is minimal.

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