Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a descending pattern since the strong $53,000 rejection that occurred on Sept. 7, en de $3.4 billion futures contracts liquidation along with China’s ban on crypto trading appear to have severely impacted tradersmorale.

Adding to the negative sentiment, major crypto exchanges like Binance and Huobi halted some services in mainland China, and some of the largest Ethereum mining pools, like Sparkpool and BeePool were forced to shut down completely.

Bitcoin-prijs in USD bij Coinbase. Bron: TradingView

Based on the above chart, it is possible to understand why buyers placed 80% of their bets at $44,000 of hoger. Echter, the past two weeks definitively caused those call (kopen) options to lose value quickly.

op sept. 25, de People's Bank of China (PBoC) posted a nationwide ban on crypto and barred companies from providing financial transactions and services to market participants. The news triggered an 8% dip in Bitcoin’s price along with a broader pullback on altcoins.

The bearish sentiment was confirmed after Tesla CEO Elon Musk expressed his support for cryptocurrency at the Code Conference in California.

Musk said:

It is not possible to, I think, destroy crypto, but it is possible for governments to slow down its advancement.

Had we been in a neutral-to-bullish market, those remarks would likely have reversed the negative trend. Bijvoorbeeld, in juli 21, Elon Musk said that Bitcoin had already hit his benchmark on renewable energy. Als gevolg, Bitcoin prijs, which had previously dropped 12% in tien dagen, reverted the move and hiked 35% over the next ten days.

The Oct. 1 expiry will be a strength test for bulls because any price below $42,000 means a bloodbath with absolute dominance of put (verkopen) opties.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Oct. 1. Bron:

Aanvankelijk, de $285 million neutral-to-bullish instruments dominated the weekly expiry by 21% vergeleken met de $320 million puts (verkopen) opties.

Echter, de 1.21 call-to-put ratio is deceiving because the excessive optimism seen from bulls could wipe out most of their bets if Bitcoin price remains below $43,000 Bij 8:00 am UTC on Friday.

Ten slotte, wat heb je aan een recht om Bitcoin te verwerven tegen? $50,000 als het onder die prijs handelt?

Bears were also caught by surprise

Sixty-six percent of the put options, where the buyer holds a right to sell Bitcoin at a pre-established price, has been placed at $42,000 of lager. These neutral-to-bearish instruments will become worthless if Bitcoin trades above that price on Friday morning.

Hieronder staan ​​de vier meest waarschijnlijke scenario's die rekening houden met de huidige prijsniveaus. De onbalans die beide kanten bevoordeelt, vertegenwoordigt de potentiële winst van de expiratie.

The data shows how many contracts will be available on Friday, afhankelijk van de vervalprijs.

  • Tussen $40,000 en $41,000: 110 oproepen versus. 4,470 zet. Het netto resultaat is: $175 miljoen voorstander van de beschermende put (beer) instrumenten.
  • Tussen $41,000 en $43,000: 640 oproepen versus. 4,000 zet. The net result continues to favor bears by $140 miljoen.
  • Tussen $43,000 en $45,000: 1,780 oproepen versus. 2,070 zet. Het netto resultaat is evenwichtig tussen beren en stieren.
  • Bovenstaand $45,000: 2,530 oproepen versus. 1,090 zet. The net result shifts in favor of bulls by $65 miljoen.

Deze ruwe schatting beschouwt call (kopen) options used in bullish strategies and put (verkopen) options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. helaas, real life is not that simple because it’s possible that more complex investment strategies are being deployed.

Bijvoorbeeld, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining a positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price. bijgevolg, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect, so the simple analysis above is a good guess.

Zoals de zaken er nu voor staan, bears have absolute control of the Oct. 1 expiry and they have a few good reasons to keep pressuring the price below $43,000.

Unless some unexpected buying pressure comes out over the next 12 uren, the amount of capital required for bulls to force the market above the $45,000 threshold seems immense and unjustified.

Aan de andere kant, bears need a 5% negative price swing that takes BTC below $41,000 to increase their lead by $35 miljoen. So this move also shows little return for the amount of effort required.

The bull’s only hope resides in some surprise positive newsflow for Bitcoin price ahead of Oct. 1 Bij 8:00 ben UTC. If any sensible action is bound to occur, it will likely take place during the weekend, when there’s less active flow.

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