For the past 40 dagen, Ether (ETH) has trended modestly upward, respecting a narrow channel most of the time. It enjoyed a brief rally toward $4,000 in the first week of September, but a subsequent crash brought the price into the ascending channel.

Ether price at Bitstamp in USD. Bron: TradingView

in augustus, nonfungible tokens posted record-breaking transactions, clogging the Ethereum network and causing average transaction fees to surpass $40 begin september. Although NFT trading volume has continued to subside, new items continue to be minted every minute regardless of whether they’re being traded.

On Sept.13, Cathie Wood — CEO of Ark Invest, een $58 billion asset manager based in the United States — commented that Ark aims for a 60% Bitcoin (BTC) en 40% Ether allocation. Ark Invest holds relevant positions in Coinbase (MUNT) and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) aandelen. Verder, Wood has been a long-time Bitcoin advocate.

Ether investors might have gotten lucky as one of the coin’s largest rivals, Solana (SOL), faced a seven-hour blackout on Sept. 14. A sudden surge in transaction volume flooded the transaction processing queue, which brought the network down.

Another incident happened on that same day after the Ethereum layer-two rollup network Arbitrum One went offline for 45 minuten. The team attributed the downtime to a massive batch of transactions submitted to the Arbitrum sequencer over a short period.

Bitcoin-opties aggregeren open rente voor september. 3. Bron:

These events point toward the importance of the ETH 2.0 upgrade, which will bring parallel processing and drastically reduce transaction fees. Vreemd genoeg, Ethereum also faced a large invalid block sequence from a malicious entity. Echter, the vast majority of network clients rejected the attack, making it unsuccessful.

Zoals hierboven getoond, bears got caught by surprise, en 95% of put (verkopen) instruments were placed at $3,500 of lager. bijgevolg, if ETH remains above that price on Sept. 17, enkel en alleen $8 million worth of neutral-to-bearish put options will be activated on the expiry.

Een putoptie is een recht om Bitcoin te verkopen tegen een vooraf bepaalde prijs op de vastgestelde vervaldatum. Dus, een $3,000 put option becomes worthless if ETH remains above that price at 8:00 ben UTC op september. 17.

The call-to-put ratio reflects a balanced situation

De 0.95 call-to-put ratio represents the small difference between the $173 million worth of call (kopen) options versus the $181 miljoen put (verkopen) opties. This bird’s eye view needs a more detailed analysis that considers that some of the bets are far-fetched considering the current $3,500 niveau.

Bijvoorbeeld, if Ether’s expiry price on Sept. 17 is $3,300, every call option above that price becomes worthless. There will be no value for a right to acquire ETH at $3,700 in that case.

Below are the four most likely scenarios considering the current Ether price. The imbalance favoring either side represents the theoretical profit from the expiry. The data below shows how many contracts will be activated on Friday, afhankelijk van de vervalprijs:

  • Tussen $3,100 en $3,300: 2,100 oproepen versus. 20,300 zet. Het netto resultaat is: $58 miljoen voorstander van de beschermende put (beer) instrumenten.
  • Tussen $3,300 en $3,500: Het netto resultaat is evenwichtig tussen beren en stieren.
  • Tussen $3,500 en $3,700: 17,600 oproepen versus. 2,300 zet. Het netto resultaat is: $55 miljoen voorstander van de oproep (stier) opties.
  • Bovenstaand $3,700: 17,600 oproepen versus. 2,300 zet. The net result favors the call options by $85 miljoen.

This raw estimate considers call options being exclusively used in bullish strategies and put options in neutral-to-bearish trades. Echter, investors might have used more complex strategies that typically involve different expiry dates.

Minimal volatility is expected for this week

Buyers and sellers will face small gains from a moving Ether price to boost their returns on the weekly options expiry. Whether or not it achieves $3,500 will be interesting — things could go either way.

Om de zaken in perspectief te plaatsen, the ETH monthly options expiry on Sept. 24 currently holds a $1.6 miljard openstaande rente. Dus, both sides are likely concentrating efforts for the next week.

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