2 ключевые показатели цен Ethereum доказывают, что профессиональные трейдеры отстают от новых максимумов ETH

As Ether (ETH) made a $2,800 all-time on April 29, so did its futures open interest. В $8.5 billion figure marks a 52% monthly increase and shows robust trading activity behind the meteoric price rise.

Some analysts might dismiss Ether derivatives, considering CME’s future has $355 million in open interest compared to Bitcoin’s $2.4 миллиард. тем не мение, Ether contracts were only launched a couple of months ago. Both FTX and Deribit require 100% full-KYC for their clients, and these markets hold a combined $2 billion in ETH open interest.

Ether futures aggregate open interest, доллар США. Источник: Bybt

To this in perspective, the open interest on silver futures currently stands at $22.6 миллиард. The precious metal has decades of trading history and a $1.4 триллионная рыночная капитализация. тем не мение, a simple analysis of the number of outstanding contracts isn’t really helpful as these can be used for hedging.

Growth in futures is positive but not a guaranteed bullish indicator

To assess whether the market is leaning bullish, there are a couple of derivatives metrics to review. The first one is the futures premium (также известный как основа), which measures the price gap between futures contract prices and the regular spot market.

3-месячные фьючерсы обычно должны торговаться с 10% к 20% годовая премия, which should be interpreted as a lending rate.

24-hour average OKEx 3-months ETH futures basis. Источник: Перекос

As the above chart depicts, ETH’s futures premium went berserk in mid-April, достигая пика 45% годовой. Although tradersFOMO played a role, this also signaled extreme optimism. While professional traders most frequently use monthly futures contracts, perpetual contracts are the go-to instrument of retail investors.

Retail investors are flat at the moment

Perpetual contracts are also known as inverse swaps, and these contracts have a funding rate usually charged every 8 часы. This fee increases as longs (покупатели) use higher leverage, so their accounts get drained little by little. When a retail buying frenzy occurs, the fee can reach up to 5.5% в неделю.

Ether perpetual futures 8-hour funding rate. Источник: Coinalyze.net

As the above chart displays, the 8-hour funding rate recently peaked at 0.18% в апреле 14, эквивалентно 3.8% в неделю. While this certainly contributed to the highly optimistic monthly futures’ основа, the impact has completely faded as the funding rate has been negligent over the past couple of days.

This data suggests that, compared to retail investors, professional traders are more bullish on Ether as the 3-month basis currently stands at 25% per year. This rate is higher than most stablecoin lending services offer, meaning longs (покупатели) are willing to pay a premium to keep their positions open.

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Источник: Cointelegraph

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