3 reasons why BTC will unlikely trade below $50,000 в ближайшем будущем

Биткойн (BTC) is showing tenacity above $50,000 в марте 25. В 10% drop over the last 24 hours happened despite Tesla allowing customers to buy vehicles using BTC in addition to CEO Elon Musk affirming that it will not be converted to fiat currency.

В марте 22, the United States Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, stated that Bitcoin was too volatile, “backed by nothing,” and more of an asset for speculation. Любопытно, on that same day, BTC lost its $56,000 служба поддержки, which became a resistance.

Traders worry that the pump might have been news-driven, while the downtrend movement shall prevail. Although this is possible, derivatives indicators aren’t leaning bearish, and any decent correction will likely meet strong support at $50,000.

Bitcoin price 3-hour candle chart (Coinbase). Источник: TradingView

Part of the uncertainty investors might have derived from the record $6.1 billion options expiry on March 26. Тем не менее, 84% of the neutral-to-bearish put options are already deemed worthless as BTC price soared above $50,000.

более того, CME holds $980 million futures contracts set to expire on the same day. Although buyers (длинные) and sellers (shorts) are matched at all times, some traders worry that BTC prices could be pressured by futures traders looking to roll over their positions into April and May.

Unlike perpetual futures, those fixed-calendar CME contracts have a set expiry date. Таким образом, to maintain a long position, one must buy the April or May futures while simultaneously selling the March contract.

Таким образом, to better assess whales and arbitrage desks influence on the market, one should closely monitor derivatives indicators.

The futures premium remains bullish

Измеряя разрыв в расходах между фьючерсами и обычным спотовым рынком, трейдер может оценить уровень бычьего настроения на рынке.

The three-month futures usually trade with a 10% к 20% versus regular spot exchanges to justify locking the funds instead of immediately cashing out. Когда этот индикатор гаснет или становится отрицательным, известный как “backwardation, it indicates that the market is bearish.

OKEx 3-month BTC futures basis. Источник: Перекос

The above chart shows that the indicator recently bottomed at 17% в марте 25 while BTC tested the $50,000 служба поддержки. This is extremely bullish as it signals leveraged buyers remained optimistic and unwilling to reduce their positions.

Whenever the basis reaches 35% или выше, it indicates extreme buyers’ кредитное плечо, but that’s clearly not the case right now.

The options skew has been neutral since Jan. 19

При анализе вариантов, в 25% дельта-перекос - самый актуальный показатель. Этот индикатор сравнивает аналогичный вызов (купить) и положи (продавать) варианты бок о бок. Some analysts point to the put-to-call ratio, but this metric fails to exclude worthless options such as a right to sell BTC at $45,000.

Таким образом, delta skew offers a less polluted number and will turn negative when the put options premium is higher than similar risk call options. Such a positive skew translates to a higher cost of downside protection, indicating optimism.

Обратное верно, когда маркет-мейкеры настроены на медведя., вызывая 25% индикатор перекоса дельты для получения положительного результата.

Опционы Deribit BTC 25% дельта перекос. Источник: laevitas.ch

Over the past five weeks, the skew indicator remained flat, indicating no optimism or pessimism from whales and option market makers. Индикатор перекоса между отрицательным 10 и положительный 10 считается нейтральным, meaning a balanced risk assessment.

Retail traders are not behind the high futures’ основа

As futures and options provide mixed sentiment, one should also monitor the perpetual futures funding rate. Such a fee is charged every eight hours to ensure derivatives exchanges hold no risk imbalances. Wherever it turns positive, it means buyers (длинные) are the ones paying the carry cost due to larger leverage use.

Бессрочные фьючерсы на BTC, 8-часовая ставка финансирования. Источник: Bybt

The current 0.04% average is relatively neutral, эквивалентно 0.8% в неделю. Although longs are the ones facing such fees, it is far from being considered costly. Such data indicates that retail traders are not creating an arbitrage opportunity causing fixed-calendar futures to trade at a premium.

В целом, derivatives indicators are healthy considering BTC is down 16% from the $61,800 небывалый максимум марта 13. Such data leaves room for further buying activity, so traders shouldn’t consider the current as anything out of the ordinary.

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Источник: Cointelegraph

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