Аналитики мрачно оценивают краткосрочный прогноз цен на биткойн прямо сейчас

Ближайшие перспективы биткойна неутешительны, аналитики говорят, Некоторые сейчас видят возможное продление значительного падения цен в понедельник.

“There could be another dump as outflows from the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Pro have dried alongside an increased transfer of coins onto exchanges,” David Lifchitz, главный инвестиционный директор парижской компании по количественной торговле ExoAlpha, сказал CoinDesk.

Bitcoin fell by over 20% on Monday to $10,305 amid heavy selling in the spot market.

Bitcoin Coinbase outflows
Источник: CryptoQuant

Outflows from Coinbase Pro, which are considered synonymous with institutional purchases, have receded sharply from the three-year high of 55,000 BTC observed on Jan. 2.

Траст биткойнов в оттенках серого (GBTC), крупнейший публичный крипто инвестиционный траст, hasn’t seen inflows since Christmas because it was temporarily closed, as noted by analyst Joseph Young. Grayscale is owned by Digital Currency Group, the parent company of CoinDesk.

That means demand-side pressures, which played a pivotal role in pushing bitcoin higher from $10,000 к $41,000 over the past three months, had weakened. The trust reopened Tuesday.

Между тем, exchange deposits have picked up the pace, признак того, что некоторые инвесторы могут стремиться ликвидировать свои владения и зафиксировать прибыль.

Daily change in bitcoins held on exchanges
Источник: Chainalysis

Количество монет на биржах увеличилось более чем на 57,000 BTC во вторник, the biggest-single day change since the markets crash on March 12, 2020, по данным аналитической компании Chainalysis.

Биржи зарегистрировали средний приток 103,000 BTC в день за последние семь дней - выше, чем в среднем за 180 дней 83,700 BTC.

“At a minimum, increased inflows suggest that the type of buyers who self-custody, typically the larger investors, are not buying as much at the moment,” Chainalysis economist Philip Gradwell told CoinDesk. “These coins could be held on exchanges to flip if prices rise rather than to sell immediately, but that will put a lid on gains, если есть, or even cause a fresh downturn.”

Technical charts are also calling for an extension of Monday’s drop.

“With bitcoin trading below the Ichimoku cloud, I still see pressure on the downside in the short-term,” Patrick Heusser, руководитель отдела трейдинга швейцарской фирмы Crypto Finance AG.

Облако Ишимоку, a technical tool created by Japanese journalist Goichi Hosoda in the late 1960s, includes multiple lines that help identify support and resistance levels and other essential information such as trend direction and momentum.

Bitcoin Ichimoku cloud
Источник: TradingView, Patrick Heusser

When an asset trades below the cloud (red line), the trend is said to be bearish, as is the case with bitcoin at press time.

“$29,000 is the make-or-break level. Things could get ugly if that support is breached,”Хойссер сказал, добавление этого $36,000 уровень, который нужно бить быкам.

Крис Томас, руководитель отдела цифровых активов Swissquote Bank, foresees consolidation in the $33,000–$36,000 range for the rest of the week.

The consolidation could end with a bullish move if institutional demand returns. “We could have a fair amount of fresh buying activity coming over the next few weeks,” Thomas said, highlighting the reopening of Grayscale Investments’ cryptocurrency products to new investors.

While the cryptocurrency may suffer deeper declines in the short term, the broader bias remains bullish.

“Recent institutional investors have long horizons and will absorb near term price shocks,” while retail investors would buy at discounted price levels for fear of missing out, Jehan Chu, managing partner at Hong Kong-based Kenetic Capital, сказал. “Expect temporary volatility and then a jump back to the $40,00 уровень, followed by $50,000 as the bitcoin percentage land grab continues.”

Bitcoin is trading near $34,210 at press time, representing a 4% drop on a 24-hour basis.

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Источник: Coindesk

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