Биткойн (BTC) has been trading in a descending pattern since the strong $53,000 rejection that occurred on Sept. 7, и $3.4 billion futures contracts liquidation along with China’s ban on crypto trading appear to have severely impacted tradersmorale.

Adding to the negative sentiment, major crypto exchanges like Binance and Huobi halted some services in mainland China, and some of the largest Ethereum mining pools, like Sparkpool and BeePool were forced to shut down completely.

Цена биткойнов в долларах на Coinbase. Источник: TradingView

Based on the above chart, it is possible to understand why buyers placed 80% of their bets at $44,000 или выше. тем не мение, the past two weeks definitively caused those call (купить) options to lose value quickly.

В сен. 25, Народный банк Китая (PBoC) posted a nationwide ban on crypto and barred companies from providing financial transactions and services to market participants. The news triggered an 8% dip in Bitcoin’s price along with a broader pullback on altcoins.

The bearish sentiment was confirmed after Tesla CEO Elon Musk expressed his support for cryptocurrency at the Code Conference in California.

Musk said:

It is not possible to, я думаю, destroy crypto, but it is possible for governments to slow down its advancement.

Had we been in a neutral-to-bullish market, those remarks would likely have reversed the negative trend. Например, в июле 21, Elon Musk said that Bitcoin had already hit his benchmark on renewable energy. В следствии, Цена биткойнов, which had previously dropped 12% in ten days, reverted the move and hiked 35% over the next ten days.

The Oct. 1 expiry will be a strength test for bulls because any price below $42,000 means a bloodbath with absolute dominance of put (продавать) опции.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Oct. 1. Источник: Bybt.com

Первоначально, в $285 million neutral-to-bullish instruments dominated the weekly expiry by 21% по сравнению с $320 million puts (продавать) опции.

тем не мение, в 1.21 call-to-put ratio is deceiving because the excessive optimism seen from bulls could wipe out most of their bets if Bitcoin price remains below $43,000 в 8:00 am UTC on Friday.

После всего, что хорошего в праве на приобретение биткойнов в $50,000 если он торгуется ниже этой цены?

Bears were also caught by surprise

Sixty-six percent of the put options, where the buyer holds a right to sell Bitcoin at a pre-established price, has been placed at $42,000 или ниже. These neutral-to-bearish instruments will become worthless if Bitcoin trades above that price on Friday morning.

Ниже представлены четыре наиболее вероятных сценария, учитывающих текущие уровни цен.. Дисбаланс в пользу любой из сторон представляет собой потенциальную прибыль от истечения срока..

The data shows how many contracts will be available on Friday, в зависимости от срока годности.

  • Между $40,000 и $41,000: 110 звонки против. 4,470 ставит. Чистый результат $175 миллион в пользу защитного пути (нести) инструменты.
  • Между $41,000 и $43,000: 640 звонки против. 4,000 ставит. The net result continues to favor bears by $140 миллион.
  • Между $43,000 и $45,000: 1,780 звонки против. 2,070 ставит. Чистый результат сбалансирован между медведями и быками..
  • Выше $45,000: 2,530 звонки против. 1,090 ставит. The net result shifts in favor of bulls by $65 миллион.

Эта приблизительная оценка учитывает вызов (купить) options used in bullish strategies and put (продавать) options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. К сожалению, real life is not that simple because it’s possible that more complex investment strategies are being deployed.

Например, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining a positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price. вследствие этого, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect, so the simple analysis above is a good guess.

As things currently stand, bears have absolute control of the Oct. 1 expiry and they have a few good reasons to keep pressuring the price below $43,000.

Unless some unexpected buying pressure comes out over the next 12 часы, the amount of capital required for bulls to force the market above the $45,000 threshold seems immense and unjustified.

С другой стороны, bears need a 5% negative price swing that takes BTC below $41,000 to increase their lead by $35 миллион. So this move also shows little return for the amount of effort required.

The bull’s only hope resides in some surprise positive newsflow for Bitcoin price ahead of Oct. 1 в 8:00 утра UTC. If any sensible action is bound to occur, it will likely take place during the weekend, when there’s less active flow.

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