$820 million in BTC options expire on Oct. 15, and data signals that bulls are set to celebrate another positive week.
Everyone is talking about a six-figure Bitcoin (BTC) price now that the digital asset has broken out of its multi-month downtrend and confirmed that a bullish trend is in play.
If Bitcoin happens to enter a parabolic move toward $110,000, that would finally match PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow model prediction. According to the pseudonymous analyst, the scarcity and valuation of gold and other precious metals and “Elon Musk’s energy FUD and China’s mining crackdown” are a few of the factors responsible for the past five months of 50% or higher inaccuracy in the model.
Bulls’ hopes mostly cling to an exchange-traded fund being approved by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. В настоящее время, there are multiple requests pending review between Oct. 18 and Nov. 1, but the regulator could postpone its final decision.
Октябрь. 15С $830 million options expiry was largely impacted by the 20% price rally initiated on Oct. 4, which most likely eliminated 92% of the put (продавать) опции.
The aftermath of China’s mining crackdown was an important event that might have fueled investor sentiment, and research shows the U.S. учет 35.4% of the Bitcoin hash rate.
более того, как сообщает Cointelegraph, Соединенные штаты. states of Texas and Ohio are also expected to receive additional large-scale Bitcoin mining centers, which will effectively boost the U.S. crypto market share even higher.
The Oct. 8 expiry was profitable for bulls
Following last week’s $370 million estimated net profit from the BTC options expiry, bulls had more firepower, and this is evident in this Friday’s $820 million expiry. This advantage explains why the call (купить) options open interest is 43% larger than the neutral-to-bearish put options.
As the above data shows, bears placed $335 million in bets for Friday’s expiry, but it appears that they were caught by surprise, в виде 92% of the put (продавать) options are likely to become worthless.
Другими словами, if Bitcoin remains above $56,000 октябрь. 15, только $36 million worth of neutral-to-bearish put options will be activated on Friday’s 8:00 am UTC expiry.
Bulls have a reason to push BTC price above $58,000
Below are the four likeliest scenarios for Oct. 15’s expiry. The imbalance favoring either side represents the theoretical profit. Другими словами, в зависимости от срока годности, the quantity of call (купить) и положи (продавать) contracts becoming active varies:
- Между $52,000 и $54,000: 3,140 звонки против. 2,110 ставит. Чистый результат $55 миллион в пользу звонка (бык) инструменты.
- Между $54,000 и $56,000: 3,700 звонки против. 1,240 ставит. Чистый результат $130 миллион в пользу звонка (бык) инструменты.
- Между $56,000 и $58,000: 4,850 звонки против. 680 ставит. Чистый результат $235 миллион в пользу звонка (бык) инструменты.
- Выше $58,000: 6,230 звонки против. 190 ставит. The net result is complete dominance, with bulls profiting $350 миллион.
This raw estimate considers call options being exclusively used in bullish bets and put options in neutral-to-bearish trades. тем не мение, investors might have used a more complex strategy that typically involves different expiry dates.
Bears need a 7% price correction to reduce their loss
In every scenario, bulls have absolute control of this Friday’s expiry, and there are a handful of reasons for them to keep the price above $56,000. С другой стороны, bears need a 7% negative move below $54,000 to avoid a loss of $235 million or higher.
Тем не менее, traders must consider that during bull runs, the amount of effort a seller needs to pressure the price is immense and usually ineffective. Analytics point to a considerable advantage from call (купить) опции, fueling even more bullish bets next week.
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