Биткойн (BTC) has been ranging from $30,400 к 36,400 for the last 12 дней, and it has been difficult to pinpoint the exact reason for investors’ lack of appetite. Some analysts have pointed to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) unlocking in mid-July finally giving institutional investors a chance to offload their funds, but this is not likely to be the main reason.

Между тем, industry leaders have suggested that the “crypto regulatory crackdown” taking shape in the United States is severely impacting investors’ sentiment, and this view is especially problematic considering China has recently banned all crypto mining activity in the country.

Наконец, renowned Bitcoin critics, including Aswath Damodaran, professor of finance at New York University’s Stern School of Business, have claimed that the cryptocurrency “failed miserably” as a currency.

Damodaran specifically cites Bitcoin’s limited use in microtransactions, even though El Salvador is pushing forward with a plan to democratize the Lightning Network solution.

Bulls have a better chance of winning the weekly expiry

After bears had a victory in the recent quarterly $3-billion options expiry on Friday, the winds may have shifted the tide favorably to bulls this time around. В то время как $34,000 level presented a $310-million advantage for the neutral-to-bearish put options last week, this upcoming Friday, Июль 2, holds an entirely different setup.

Aggregate July 2 Bitcoin options open interest. Источник: Bybt

The initial picture paints a neutral structure, with the neutral-to-positive call options open interest dominating by 8% as per the call-to-put ratio. Вне $445 миллион в открытом интересе, $230 million is represented by the neutral-to-bullish call options, which gives a slight advantage to bulls. тем не мение, looking at more granular data provides a different angle.

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Только 18% of the protective put options have been placed at $33,000 or higher strikes. Следовательно, if Bitcoin is trading above that level at 8:00 am UTC on Friday, только $38 million worth of those neutral-to-bearish instruments will last.

$34,000 is the make-or-break level for both sides

С другой стороны, bulls will likely try to defend the $34,000 уровень, в результате чего $45 million in call (купить) options open interest.

Truth to be told, both sides have incentives to break this reasonable equilibrium at $34,000. Например, над $35,000, bulls’ advantage increased from $7 миллион в $57 миллион.

Наоборот, bears have the upper hand if Bitcoin trades below $33,000. В этом случае, protective put options open interest is $31 million higher than the neutral-to-bullish call options.

Подводить итоги, it is impossible to predict whichever side will come out stronger on Friday’s expiry. тем не мение, this is the first time in over four weeks that bulls have a decent fighting chance.

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