A growing number of analysts have flipped bearish on Bitcoin and expect a significant price drop, but analyzing data from the perpetual futures and options markets uncovers a contrasting narrative.
Margin trading allows investors to borrow stablecoins or cryptocurrency to leverage their position and improve the expected return. Например, borrowing Tether (USDT) will allow one to buy Bitcoin (BTC), thus increasing their Bitcoin long position.
Investors can also borrow BTC to margin trade a short position, thus betting on price downside. This is why some analysts monitor the total lending amounts of Bitcoin and Tether to gain insight into whether investors are leaning bullish or bearish.
Are analysts flipping bearish based only on Bitfinex’s margin data?
Эта неделя, some prominent analysts cited a surge in Bitcoin short positions on Bitfinex, достигая пика 6,621 BTC on June 7. Как сообщает Cointelegraph, independent researcher Fomocap found a visible correlation between margined short positions and the May 19 price crash.
тем не мение, when analyzing a broader scope of data — including the margin longs, perpetual contracts funding rate and protective put options — there is no evidence of prominent players preparing for a surprise negative move.
A single instance of Bitcoin margin shorts spiking ahead of the negative price swing should not be considered a leading indicator. более того, one needs to factor in Bitcoin margin longs — an opposing, usually larger force.
As the above chart indicates, even on May 17 the number of BTC/USD long margin contracts outpaced shorts by 3.6, в 39,000 BTC. по факту, the last time this indicator dropped below 2.0, favoring longs, was on Nov. 26, 2020. The result was not good for the shorts, as Bitcoin rallied 64% over the following 30 дней.
Whenever traders borrow Tether and stablecoins, they are likely long on cryptocurrencies. С другой стороны, BTC borrowing is mainly used for short positions.
Theoretically, whenever the USDT/BTC lending ratio goes up, the market is angled in a bullish manner. The ratio at OKEx bottomed at 3.5 в мае 20, favoring longs, but it quickly returned to the 5.5 уровень. Следовательно, there is no evidence of a significant movement favoring shorts on margin markets.
The perpetual futures funding rate is still flat
Perpetual futures prices trade very close to regular spot exchanges, making the lives of retail traders a lot easier because they no longer need to calculate the futures premium.
This magic can only be achieved by the funding rate charged from longs (покупатели) when demanding more leverage. тем не мение, when the situation is reversed and shorts (продавцы) are over-leveraged, the funding rate goes negative, and they become the ones paying the fee.
As displayed above, the funding rate has been mostly flat since May 19. Had there been a massive surge for shorting demand, the indicator would have reflected the move.
The options put-to-call ratio remains bullish
Звонок (купить) опцион предоставляет покупателю защиту от повышения цены, и положить (продавать) делает наоборот. Это означает, что трейдеры, стремящиеся к нейтрально-медвежьей стратегии, обычно будут полагаться на пут-опционы.. С другой стороны, опционы колл чаще используются для бычьих позиций.
Take notice of how the neutral-to-bullish call options outnumber the protective puts by nearly 90%. Had professional traders and whales been anticipating a market crash, this ratio would have been positively impacted.
Investors should not make trading decisions based on a single indicator, as the remaining markets and exchanges may not corroborate it. Сейчас, there is absolutely no indication that heavy players are betting on Bitcoin short positions.
Взгляды и мнения, выраженные здесь, принадлежат исключительно автор и не обязательно отражают точку зрения Cointelegraph. Каждое инвестиционное и торговое движение связано с риском. Принимая решение, вам следует провести собственное исследование..
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