Derivatives data and strong fundamentals back retail and professional traders’ bullish stance on ETH price.
Эфир (ETH) цена выросла 32% leading up to August 23, and despite testing the $3,000 support multiple times, the level has held firmly. Между тем, Биткойн (BTC) could not sustain the $50,000 отметка, at least in the short-term. According to Cointelegraph, pro traders are not yet inclined to add bullish positions according to derivatives metrics.
Как ни странно, the opposite situation emerges when looking at the sentiment of Ether traders who currently show a reasonable degree of confidence in the current price level.
Regulatory pressure and spectacular NFT growth back traders confidence in Ether
В понедельник, Рассветный пень, a commissioner at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stated that:
“A trading platform that offers derivatives on digital assets to U.S. лица без регистрации, или в нарушение правил торговли CFTC, is subject to the CFTC’s enforcement authority.”
It is unclear why Bitcoin’s and Ether’s reaction to the news would be any different, but it is worth noting that commissioner Stump is only one of four to six CFTC members on panels that regulate commodities.
Между тем, payment processor giant Visa surprised the NFT market, announcing a $150,000 CryptoPunk acquisition. Кай Шеффилд, the head of crypto at the $500 billion market cap company said:
“With our CryptoPunk purchase, мы сначала прыгаем ногами. This is just the beginning of our work in this space.”
For those unfamiliar, the Ethereum network is the absolute leader in the NFT segment, and a single marketplace called OpenSea has processed more than $1 billion worth of transactions in the past 30 дней.
Pro traders are neutral-to-bullish according to futures markets
To understand how bullish or bearish professional traders are leaning, one should analyze the futures basis rate. The basis is also frequently referred to as the futures premium, and it measures the difference between longer-term futures contracts and the current spot market levels.
А 5% к 15% годовая премия ожидается на здоровых рынках, in a situation known as contango. This price difference is caused by sellers demanding more money to withhold settlement longer.
тем не мение, this indicator fades or turns negative during bearish markets and flashed a red flag known as ‘backwardation’.
Как изображено выше, электрический ток 11% annualized premium is neutral but much better than one month ago when the metric held below 5%. Тем не менее, a healthy market does not need excessive optimism from pro traders, which usually ends with excessive leverage longs and a basis rate above 15%.
Options traders have been flirting with ‘greed’
Чтобы исключить внешние эффекты, характерные для фьючерсного инструмента, one should also analyze options markets.
В 25% delta skew сравнивает аналогичный вызов (купить) и положи (продавать) опции. The metric will turn positive when fear is prevalent as the protective put options premium is higher than similar risk call options.
The opposite holds when market makers are bullish, вызывая 25% delta skew indicator to shift to the negative area. Readings between negative 8% и положительный 8% are usually deemed neutral.
Notice how Ether option traders have been flirting with the ‘greed’ level since Aug. 7 when the indicator dropped below the negative 8 порог. This data validates the futures contract premium, which has improved over the past couple of weeks and is currently sustaining a healthy ‘neutral’ уровень.
Derivatives data shows the pro traders that are more active on quarterly futures and Ether options trading sitting comfortably at the time of writing.
Взгляды и мнения, выраженные здесь, принадлежат исключительно автор и не обязательно отражают точку зрения Cointelegraph. Каждое инвестиционное и торговое движение связано с риском. Принимая решение, вам следует провести собственное исследование..
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