Сигнализируют ли опционы колл на биткойны от 100 до 300 тысяч долларов на бычий курс цены на биткойн??

The open interest on Bitcoin (BTC) Декабрь. 31 call options between $100,000 и $300,000 reached an impressive 6,700 контракты, which is currently worth $385 миллион. These derivatives give the buyer the right to acquire Bitcoin for a fixed price, while the seller is obliged to honor it.

One might think that this is a great way to leverage a long position, but it comes at a cost and is usually quite high. For this right, the buyer pays an upfront fee (премия) to the call option seller. Например, в $100,000 call option is currently trading at 0.164 BTC, эквивалентно $9,480.

По этой причине, option traders seldomly buy these options by themselves. Следовательно, longer-expiry derivatives usually involve multiple strike prices or calendar months.

Bitcoin options block trades. Источник: Paradigm Telegram Channel

Shown above is an actual trade arranged by Paradigm, an institutional investor-focused over-the-counter trading desk. In this trade, Всего 37 BTC Dec. $100,000 и $140,000 calls have been traded between two of their clients.

К сожалению, there’s no way to know which side the market maker was, but considering the risks involved, one should assume the client was looking for a bullish position.

BTC Calendar Spread simulation. Источник: Построитель позиций Deribit

By selling the $140,000 call option and simultaneously buying the more expensive $100,000 call, this client paid a $138,000 upfront premium. This amount represents their max loss, which takes place at $100,000 price on Dec. 31.

The red line on the above simulation shows the net outcome at expiry, measured in BTC. Между тем, the green line displays the theoretical net return on June 30.

Таким образом, this client needs Bitcoin to trade at $65,600 or higher on June 30 to recoup their investment. This number is significantly lower than the $107,150 required for the break-even if this ‘call spreadstrategy buyer holds until the December expiry.

This phenomenon is caused by the $100,000 call option price appreciation being larger than the $140,000. While a Bitcoin increase to $65,600 is quite relevant for a $100,000 option with six months left, it is not so much for the $140,000 one.

Countless strategies can be achieved by trading ultra-bullish call options, although the buyer doesn’t need to wait for the expiry date to lock in profits. Таким образом, if Bitcoin happens to increase by 30% in a couple of months, it makes sense for this ‘call spreadholder to unwind their position.

As shown in the example above, if Bitcoin reaches $75,000 in June, the buyer can lock in a $23,000 net profit by closing the position.

While it’s exciting to see exchanges offering massive $100,000 к $300,000 expiries, these figures should not be taken as precise analysis-backed price estimates.

Professional traders use these instruments to conduct bullish but controlled investment strategies.

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Источник: Cointelegraph

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