For the past 40 дней, Эфир (ETH) has trended modestly upward, respecting a narrow channel most of the time. It enjoyed a brief rally toward $4,000 in the first week of September, but a subsequent crash brought the price into the ascending channel.

Ether price at Bitstamp in USD. Источник: TradingView

В августе, nonfungible tokens posted record-breaking transactions, clogging the Ethereum network and causing average transaction fees to surpass $40 в начале сентября. Although NFT trading volume has continued to subside, new items continue to be minted every minute regardless of whether they’re being traded.

On Sept.13, Cathie Wood — CEO of Ark Invest, а $58 billion asset manager based in the United States — commented that Ark aims for a 60% Биткойн (BTC) и 40% Ether allocation. Ark Invest holds relevant positions in Coinbase (МОНЕТА) and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) акции. более того, Wood has been a long-time Bitcoin advocate.

Ether investors might have gotten lucky as one of the coin’s largest rivals, Солана (СОЛЬ), faced a seven-hour blackout on Sept. 14. A sudden surge in transaction volume flooded the transaction processing queue, which brought the network down.

Another incident happened on that same day after the Ethereum layer-two rollup network Arbitrum One went offline for 45 минут. The team attributed the downtime to a massive batch of transactions submitted to the Arbitrum sequencer over a short period.

Совокупный открытый интерес биткойн-опционов за сентябрь. 3. Источник: Bybt.com

These events point toward the importance of the ETH 2.0 upgrade, which will bring parallel processing and drastically reduce transaction fees. Любопытно, Ethereum also faced a large invalid block sequence from a malicious entity. тем не мение, the vast majority of network clients rejected the attack, making it unsuccessful.

Как показано выше, bears got caught by surprise, и 95% of put (продавать) instruments were placed at $3,500 или ниже. вследствие этого, if ETH remains above that price on Sept. 17, только $8 million worth of neutral-to-bearish put options will be activated on the expiry.

Опцион пут - это право продать биткойн по заранее определенной цене в установленный срок действия.. Таким образом, а $3,000 put option becomes worthless if ETH remains above that price at 8:00 утра по всемирному координированному времени сентября. 17.

The call-to-put ratio reflects a balanced situation

В 0.95 call-to-put ratio represents the small difference between the $173 million worth of call (купить) options versus the $181 миллион пут (продавать) опции. This bird’s eye view needs a more detailed analysis that considers that some of the bets are far-fetched considering the current $3,500 уровень.

Например, if Ether’s expiry price on Sept. 17 является $3,300, every call option above that price becomes worthless. There will be no value for a right to acquire ETH at $3,700 in that case.

Below are the four most likely scenarios considering the current Ether price. The imbalance favoring either side represents the theoretical profit from the expiry. The data below shows how many contracts will be activated on Friday, в зависимости от срока годности:

  • Между $3,100 и $3,300: 2,100 звонки против. 20,300 ставит. Чистый результат $58 миллион в пользу защитного пути (нести) инструменты.
  • Между $3,300 и $3,500: Чистый результат сбалансирован между медведями и быками..
  • Между $3,500 и $3,700: 17,600 звонки против. 2,300 ставит. Чистый результат $55 миллион в пользу звонка (бык) опции.
  • Выше $3,700: 17,600 звонки против. 2,300 ставит. The net result favors the call options by $85 миллион.

This raw estimate considers call options being exclusively used in bullish strategies and put options in neutral-to-bearish trades. тем не мение, investors might have used more complex strategies that typically involve different expiry dates.

Minimal volatility is expected for this week

Buyers and sellers will face small gains from a moving Ether price to boost their returns on the weekly options expiry. Whether or not it achieves $3,500 will be interesting — things could go either way.

Чтобы взглянуть на вещи в перспективе, the ETH monthly options expiry on Sept. 24 currently holds a $1.6 billion open interest. Таким образом, both sides are likely concentrating efforts for the next week.

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