Bear’s misplaced belief that Bitcoin price would drop to $32,000 allowed Friday’s BTC options expiry to become unexpectedly balanced.
On June 4, Всего 15,530 Биткойн (BTC) options are set to expire, который представляет $575 миллион в открытом интересе. В данный момент, bulls are still heavily impacted by May’s 37% BTC price correction, and this has led most call (купить) options to be underwater.
Despite the crash, Bitcoin’s active supply reached a five-month low as 45% of the coins have not been moved over the past 2 лет. This indicator shows that investors who purchased up until the 2019 bull run are unwilling to sell at the current prices.
Miners are also avoiding sales below $40,000 as their outflows recently reached a seven-month low relative to the historical average.
В это время, technical analysts pointed to the 50-week exponential moving average as a strong support level close to $34,000. Все еще, the price chart has been forming a pattern of sideways trading that culminates in a narrowing wedge and breakout — known as “compression” — and indicating higher volatility towards the end of the week.
What is clear is that the market is a mixed bag right now, and everyone is grasping at various signals as an attempt to pinpoint the direction of the next trending move.
Bears could have dominated as markets tanked
While bears could have easily dominated Friday’s expiry, it seems they became overconfident by focusing primarily on sub-$32,000 put (продавать) опции.
The initial picture favors bears as the call-to-put ratio stands at 0.84, although this indicator values every option the same. тем не мение, the right to acquire Bitcoin at $46,000 in less than 42 hours is currently worthless, so this call option is trading below $20 каждый.
A similar effect is in place for the neutral-to-bearish put options at $28,000 and lower. Holders have no benefit in rolling it over for the upcoming weeks as these contracts also became worthless. Следовательно, to better assess how traders are positioned for Friday’s options expiry, one needs to concentrate on the $32,000 к $42,000 спектр.
The neutral-to-bull call options up to $42,000 равняться 3,080 Bitcoin contracts, representing a $114 million open interest. С другой стороны, put (продавать) options down to $32,000 encompass 4,680 Bitcoin contracts, в настоящее время стоит $173 миллион.
As expected, в $60 million difference favoring bears is not enough to cause any disturbance. This situation was caused by excessively bearish bets that did not pay off, potentially leading to the first balanced options expiry in three weeks.
Market makers are leaning bearish
В 25% дельта-перекос обеспечивает надежное и мгновенное “страх и жадность” анализ. Этот индикатор сравнивает аналогичный вызов (купить) и положи (продавать) options side by side and will turn positive when the neutral-to-bearish put options premium is higher than similar-risk call options. Эта ситуация обычно считается “страх” сценарий, хотя часто бывает после сплошных митингов.
С другой стороны, отрицательный перекос приводит к более высокой стоимости защиты от роста и указывает на рост.
С мая 17, the indicator flipped to the “страх” range and peaked multiple at 20% on numerous occasions, signaling a lack of interest to offer protective puts.
There is no doubt that bulls are frightened, but historically those are the best opportunities to buy the dip.
At least for the June 4 истечение срока опциона, bears no longer dominate the trade. Huobi, OKEx and Deribit expiries take place on June 4 в 8:00 am UTC.
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